Match preview: home struggles vs away momentum in Utrecht
The Europa League returns to Stadion Galgenwaard on 11/12/2025 and it presents a classic clash of trajectories: FC Utrecht, muddling near the foot of the group with a single point from five games, welcome a confident Nottingham Forest side that sits on eight points and looks likely to secure qualification. Utrecht’s continental campaign has been stubbornly lean — just two goals scored and seven conceded in the group — and their recent run domestically reads like a string of stalemates, with draws against FC Twente and Go Ahead Eagles and a lone league win over Ajax. Victor Jensen’s appearance as best player in the last Utrecht outing is one of the few bright spots in an otherwise sputtering group performance.
Nottingham Forest arrive with clear attacking credentials in this competition: nine goals from five group games and a positive goal difference. Their continental form is buoyed by domestic highlights — a recent 3-0 away win at Liverpool and a 3-0 success over Malmö in Europe — though they were humbled by Everton last time out. Elliot Anderson was Forest’s standout against Everton despite the defeat, a reminder they have individuals who can spark matches. Statistically Forest dominate dangerous play: higher attacks per match, more corners, and superior shots on target totals in aggregate match data suggest the visitors will carry the greater threat.
Tactical and statistical edge
Numbers point to Nottingham Forest controlling the narrative. Forest average 115 attacks and 51.6 dangerous attacks per game compared to Utrecht’s 83.45 and 32.82; corners and shot volumes also favour the visitors. Utrecht’s group record—no wins, four losses and just a single draw—illustrates a side under pressure when seeking results. Conversely, Nottingham’s three clean sheets in recent form show they can combine offensive potency with defensive solidity when required. Both teams have seen mixed BTTS outcomes in recent fixtures, but the imbalance in attacking metrics suggests Forest are likelier to create the decisive chances.
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Prediction and betting tip
Given the gulf in group form, attacking output and overall chance creation, Nottingham Forest head into Utrecht as the sensible pick. The market mirrors that logic — Forest priced at roughly 1.72 in the 1X2 market — and their recent European performances back a confident away bid. Expect a controlled visiting performance, with Forest looking to finish strong in the group while Utrecht chase a result under pressure.
Betting suggestion: Nottingham Forest to win (1X2) at around 1.72 — stake with caution and consider a modest stake given cup dynamics and recent variance in both teams’ form.