Prediction Ferroviária vs Novorizontino 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie B on 15/09/2025

Match narrative and context

Ferroviária welcome Novorizontino to Estádio Doutor Adhemar de Barros in Araraquara on 15 September with both sides eyeing momentum in a congested Serie B season. Ferroviária sit 14th with 31 points from 25 matches, a team that has been difficult to beat at times but also prone to draws — ten so far — and a mixed run of form that includes three wins and three losses in their last ten. Novorizontino arrive in a stronger league position, seventh with 37 points, yet their recent results show instability: just two wins in their last ten outings and a sequence peppered with defeats and draws.

The recent meeting in May produced an entertaining 2-2 draw, a reminder that these teams can be competitive with each other. Ferroviária’s home record is built on compact defending and the ability to grind out results; they’ve scored 14 at home and conceded 12, and they’ve kept seven clean sheets this term. Novorizontino, by contrast, boast an impressive home goal tally (21) but are far less potent on the road — only six goals away this season — which immediately shapes expectations for this fixture away from their own stadium.

Tactical pointers and recent form

Ferroviária’s last outing was a stinging 4-0 defeat to Coritiba, a result that will still be fresh in the squad’s mind and likely galvanize a more cautious, disciplined approach at home. They have a near-even goals balance across home and away and display a tendency toward draws, reflected in their ten stalemates. Novorizontino’s last match was a 1-1 draw with Atlético GO; Dantas earned plaudits there and the side has shown resilience, but away matches have been their Achilles’ heel. Statistically Novorizontino create more attacks and dangerous situations per match, yet they convert far less when travelling — only six away goals all season — suggesting they struggle to break down compact defences on the road.

Bookmakers peg Ferroviária as a slight favorite at 2.65, with both the draw and Novorizontino priced at 2.90. The odds reflect a tight contest where home advantage and Novorizontino’s fragile away scoring form are significant factors.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given Ferroviária’s defensive solidity at home, Novorizontino’s clear lack of goal threat away from home, the high number of draws involving the hosts, and both sides’ modest over-2.5 statistics this season, the clearest value lies with the goals market rather than a straight match-winner play. Expect a tense, low-scoring encounter where chances will be at a premium and margins fine.

Betting suggestion: Under 2.5 goals — this fixture profiles as a tight, low-scoring affair based on Ferroviária’s home form, Novorizontino’s poor away scoring record, and both teams’ moderate over-2.5 percentages.