Prediction Fiorentina vs Bologna 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 26/10/2025

Match preview: momentum meets pressure in Florence

Fiorentina host Bologna at the Stadio Artemio Franchi on 26/10/2025 in a fixture that feels like a crossroads for both clubs. The Viola arrive rooted to the bottom third of the table and carrying a worrying collection of results: no league wins from seven matches, just three draws and four defeats, and a meagre five goals scored against ten conceded. Home form has been fragile — defensive lapses have cost them heavily and their attack has struggled to find consistent value in front of goal. Their most recent outing, a 2-1 loss to Milan, underlined how difficult it has been to turn chances into points; Robin Gosens was the standout in that game but it wasn’t enough to change Fiorentina’s trajectory.

Bologna, conversely, come into Tuscany with a spring in their step. Sitting fifth in Serie A after seven games, they have collected four wins and looked balanced across the pitch. Recent results include a confident Europa League victory that demonstrated depth and temperament away from home, and a domestic run that shows attacking teeth — 11 goals so far and a defence that has kept three clean sheets. The travelling team is more fluid in transition, generating more shots and threatening inside the box with greater regularity than their hosts.

How this could unfold: edges on quality and confidence

Statistically the visitors enjoy clear advantages. Bologna average more total shots and a higher rate of shots on target, and they win more corners — signs of dominance in the attacking phase. Fiorentina’s higher percentage of over-2.5 games at home and a tendency to be involved in both-teams-to-score fixtures point to potential goal activity, but their inability to close out matches and a leaky home defence give weight to the idea that Bologna will control key moments. The bookmakers’ prices reflect a tight call — home and away odds sit level at 2.70 with a draw at 3.10 — but form, recent European rhythm and overall metrics tilt the balance towards the visitors.

Tactical nuance and decisive factors

This match will likely be decided in transitional phases and set-piece moments where Bologna’s corner and shot volume can create openings against Fiorentina’s vulnerable backline. Fiorentina will need to convert limited opportunities and shore up their defensive concentration, whereas Bologna’s task is to maintain pressure, avoid complacency, and exploit space behind the wide areas.

Betting suggestion (final pick) Based on current form, underlying numbers and recent results the most sensible single-market recommendation is a 1X2 play: back Bologna to win. The away victory combines the visitors’ attacking output, defensive stability and momentum into the most probable outcome, and it is available at a fair price of 2.70. This is a value-first selection rather than a safe hedge — treat the stake accordingly and consider bankroll management given the unpredictable nature of Fiorentina at home.