Prediction FSV Mainz 05 vs VfB Stuttgart 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the DFB Pokal on 29/10/2025

Context and form: Mainz under pressure, Stuttgart confident

FSV Mainz 05 welcome VfB Stuttgart to the Mewa Arena on October 29 in a DFB Pokal second-round tie that feels far bigger than a single-elimination fixture. The stadium will hold 34,000 in Mainz and referee Deniz Aytekin will be centre-stage for what promises to be a tense evening. The storylines are simple: Mainz arrive on the back of a sticky sequence of results, while Stuttgart are carrying clear momentum. Recent meetings underline the visitors’ upper hand — Stuttgart beat Mainz 2-1 in the Bundesliga on October 26, a match where Deniz Undav earned plaudits for his performance and Nadiem Amiri was Mainz’s best in a losing effort.

Mainz’s recent ledger reads like a warning sign. The club has found wins hard to come by away from home and their last five results include heavy defeats and narrow losses. Their attacking output in the available stats is modest — fewer total shots and a comparatively lower shots-on-target figure than their opponents — and confidence looks fragile. Stuttgart, by contrast, have collected seven wins in their most recent ten matches and show higher attacking volume and efficiency in the summaries provided. Their numbers across total shots and shots inside the box suggest a team that can both create chances and sustain pressure.

Tactics and match temperament

Cup football has a different temperature to league fixtures: knockout urgency, the potential for rotation and moments where experience and composure decide the tie. Stuttgart’s run of form signals a side comfortable finding results across competitions, while Mainz must solve defensive frailties and convert possession into meaningful scoring opportunities. The last head-to-head finished 2-1 — a scoreline that points to an encounter where both sides can threaten, but where the visitors hold the tactical edge and momentum.

Odds from the market reflect that balance. Bookmakers have Stuttgart as the preferred outcome with the away win quoted at 2.25, while Mainz are longer at 2.95 and the draw sits around 3.50. Those prices mirror the underlying narratives: Mainz in need of stability, Stuttgart riding form and confidence.

Betting suggestion For this tie the clearest, data-backed choice is the 1X2 market: back VfB Stuttgart to win. The visitors’ recent form, superior shot volume and the fresh league victory over Mainz tilt the balance in their favour, and the 2.25 quote offers value for a side in form.

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