Prediction Gambia vs Burundi 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 09/09/2025

Match context

The Group Stage resumes in Nairobi as Gambia and Burundi meet at Nyayo National Stadium on 09/09/2025 in what promises to be a lively, high-stakes encounter. On paper the standings tell a close story: Burundi sit third with 10 points from seven matches while Gambia are chasing from fourth with seven points. The unusual neutral-ground setting in Kenya — a familiar backdrop for Gambia from their recent 3-1 win over hosts Kenya — sets the stage for a clash that could swing either way, but it will almost certainly be entertaining.

Form and recent results

Gambia arrive off a confidence-boosting 3-1 victory against Kenya on 05/09/2025, a game in which Musa Barrow earned the match’s best player rating. That result is part of a mixed but resilient run that includes several wins and draws; their latest sequence reads W-D-W-L-D-W-L-W-D-L, which underlines an attacking side that can both score and concede. Across the group campaign Gambia have netted 15 times while conceding 14, numbers that point to open games.

Burundi, meanwhile, have been less consistent. Their latest outing ended in a 1-0 home defeat to Côte d'Ivoire on 05/09/2025, with Mokono Eldhino their best performer in a losing effort. The form string L-D-W-W-L-L-D-L-L-L suggests a side capable of flashes of attacking potency — they scored five in a March rout of Seychelles — but also prone to runs of poor results. Overall Burundi’s group totals show 13 goals scored and only 8 conceded, hinting at a team that can be compact at times but also hurtful on the break.

Tactical outlook and keys to the game

The underlying numbers favor goals. Gambia’s fixtures have seen a high over-2.5 rate (71.43%), while Burundi’s group games have also gone over 2.5 on several occasions (57.14%). Gambia average more shots and shots on target in the data provided, indicating they will look to play on the front foot — and that invites opportunities for both sides to score. Head-to-head history is competitive and recent meetings have produced multiple goals, underlining the expectation of an open contest.

Prediction and betting suggestion

This feels like a match where both teams’ contrasting rhythms — Gambia’s attacking verve and Burundi’s occasional defensive solidity — will combine into an open, goal-laden affair. Backing goals is the clearest value from the available data.

Betting suggestion: Over 2.5 goals. Reasoning: Gambia’s high over-2.5 percentage (71.43%), Burundi’s scoring capacity across the group, recent high-scoring encounters for both sides, and Gambia’s attacking metrics all point to at least three goals in Nairobi. Expected scoreline (for context): Gambia 2-1 Burundi.