Prediction Genoa vs Empoli 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Coppa Italia on 25/09/2025

Match preview: Genoa welcome Empoli to Luigi Ferraris with momentum to seize

Genoa return to Stadio Comunale Luigi Ferraris on 25/09/2025 to host Empoli in the 2nd Round of the Coppa Italia, a domestic cup tie that arrives with both sides looking to arrest wobbling league form. Federico Dionisi will take charge as referee, and the Genoa supporters will hope the familiar turf and the coastal crowd of Genova will spur their team to a result after a mixed start to the season.

Genoa’s recent sequence reveals a side that can grind out results at home; across the snapshot of recent outings they managed a convincing 3-0 win against Vicenza and drew stalemates against Lecce and Como while losing narrowly to Bologna and Juventus. That 2-1 loss at Bologna is the latest competitive test and underlines a team that is competitive but not invulnerable. Empoli arrive bruised from a heavy 4-0 reverse at Pescara, a result that should prompt concerns about confidence and defensive solidity. Their season has been a rollercoaster, with draws against Spezia and several narrow defeats and wins in the mix.

Tactical matchup and key trends

On paper the teams carry similar offensive signatures in recent matches: Genoa have averaged 14 total shots with six on target in recent home action, boasting nine shots from inside the box and a higher dangerous attacks average of 43 — a sign they generate more clear chances. Empoli’s recent numbers show 13 total shots with four on target and a dangerous attacks average of 34, suggesting they create opportunities but perhaps with less threat in the decisive areas.

Set-piece and corner metrics hint at Genoa enjoying more attacking territorial moments, with an average of five corners compared to Empoli’s four. Defensively, Genoa managed to keep a clean sheet in their recent home snapshot while Empoli have had trouble recently; their last outing conceded four goals. The head-to-head earlier in the year ended 1-1 in Serie A, indicating these sides can cancel each other out, but cup ties often swing on current form and home advantage.

Prediction and outlook

This feels like a tilt in Genoa’s favor. The bookmakers align with that view, pricing the home side as clear favourites, and the data supports Genoa controlling the contest more often in the attacking third. Empoli’s heavy defeat in their last match raises questions about morale and defensive discipline, and in a one-off cup tie away from home those fragilities are magnified. Expect a competitive first half, but Genoa’s sharper threat from inside the box and home familiarity should tell as the match progresses. A narrow home victory is the most likely outcome.

Betting suggestion

Pick: 1X2 — Home (Genoa) to win at odds 1.53. This selection reflects Genoa’s attacking edge at Luigi Ferraris, the bookmaker-implied probability of around 65%, and Empoli’s recent defensive malaise.