Prediction Georgia vs Bulgaria 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 07/09/2025

Match Preview

The World Cup qualifying race returns to Tbilisi as Georgia prepare to welcome Bulgaria to the Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena on 07/09/2025. This fixture has the feel of a pivotal Group Stage clash for both nations: Georgia, buoyed by a strong run of home attacking statistics, will aim to respond quickly after a narrow 2-3 reverse to Turkey on 4 September. Bulgaria, meanwhile, arrive visibly dented after a heavy 0-3 defeat to Spain and a run of results that has left them searching for rhythm and ideas at the other end.

Georgia’s recent domestic and international sample suggests an offensive identity—15 total shots and four on target in the most recent home sample—and attacking metrics that stand out: an average of 84 attacks and 71 dangerous attacks. Those numbers underline a side willing to press forward and create chances, particularly on home soil where they have averaged six corners. Bulgaria’s profile contrasts starkly. Their recent data shows an anemic output: an average of three total shots with zero on target in the sample provided, only one corner on average and a far lower dangerous attacks figure. The gulf in shot creation and sustained pressure is a clear story-line heading into this match.

Form and recent meetings

Georgia’s immediate form line contains brighter patches: a run in previous months with clear wins over Armenia and Faroe Islands and a 1-1 draw with Cape Verde Islands earlier in the summer. The narrow loss to Turkey saw them score twice and display resilience, with Zuriko Davitashvili earning the best player rating in that game. Bulgaria’s recent results paint a tougher picture: consecutive defeats to stronger sides and stoppages in momentum, with goalkeeper Svetoslav Vutsov picking up a commendable rating despite the heavy scoreline against Spain. Head-to-head history offers little to lean on—this pair drew 0-0 in their last competitive meeting in the Nations League—but current trends favor the hosts.

Tactical edge and match dynamics

On paper and in the numbers, Georgia should control the tempo. Their attacking averages and shot volume give them the means to press high and pin Bulgaria back. Bulgaria’s low shot and dangerous-attack metrics imply that they will struggle to manufacture clear chances unless they radically change approach or find success on the counter. Special attention will be on Georgia’s ability to convert possession and shots into goals; they showed that capacity recently by finding the net twice even in defeat to Turkey. Bulgaria’s defensive record has been hit-or-miss in qualifying so far, conceding three in their opening match, which increases the likelihood of Georgia exploiting space at home.

Prediction and Betting Tip

Given the gulf in attacking output, home advantage at a packed Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena, and the contrasting recent forms, Georgia look the logical pick to take all three points. The most straightforward and supported market from the available options is the 1X2. Back Georgia to win — the hosts should have enough quality and territorial control to convert pressure into goals, while Bulgaria have struggled to test opposing goalkeepers and create sustained attacking threats. Betting suggestion: 1X2 – Georgia to win. Confidence is elevated based on the statistical advantage in shots, dangerous attacks and home attacking metrics.