Prediction Georgia vs Turkey 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 04/09/2025

Big night in Tbilisi: Georgia welcome Turkey in Group Stage clash

The Boris Paichadze Dinamo Arena will be buzzing on 4 September when Georgia host Turkey in a crucial Group Stage fixture of the 2026 World Cup Qualifying campaign. The setting could not be more electric: a big stadium in Tbilisi with capacity for over 54,000, where home advantage has the potential to lift Georgia on a night when every point in the group will matter. Georgia arrive with momentum from a string of convincing results earlier in the year, while Turkey bring an attacking edge and a recent run that should worry the hosts.

Form lines and recent meetings tell an intriguing story

Georgia’s recent run reads like a team building genuine belief. Across ten outings their form reads D-W-W-W-L-D-L-L-W-W, a sequence that includes emphatic victories such as a 6-1 dismantling of Armenia and a steady 1-0 win over the Faroe Islands, balanced with a 1-1 friendly draw against Cape Verde Islands and a loss to the Czech Republic late last year. Those results show Georgia can both score freely and grit it out when required, particularly on home soil.

Turkey, meanwhile, arrive with a strong away record in recent friendlies and qualifiers, carrying a ten-match string that includes six wins, two draws and only two losses (L-W-W-W-L-D-W-W-W-D). Their summer results were mixed — a narrow 1-0 loss to Mexico was offset by a spirited 2-1 win over the United States and dominant wins over Hungary earlier in the year (3-0 and 3-1). The H2H history adds another layer: Turkey defeated Georgia 3-1 in the 2024 European Championship group stage meeting, a result that will give them belief when they step into Tbilisi again.

Bookmakers have edged Turkey into favour. The latest match odds put Turkey at 2.24 (approximate 44.6% implied probability), Georgia at 3.00 (33.3%) and the draw at 3.45 (29%). Those numbers reflect a contest where Turkey are seen as the side likelier to take the points, but not overwhelmingly so — the home factor and Georgia’s recent scoring form keep this beautifully poised.

What to expect on the night

Expect an open, competitive match. Georgia will push to exploit home comfort and will look to make the stadium a cauldron; they’ve shown they can score in bunches and defend stoutly when needed. Turkey will aim to control the tempo, seeking to use their recent attacking rhythm to unsettle the hosts. Given the summer friendlies and earlier year results, both teams have the capacity to find the net, but the balance tips slightly in Turkey’s favour when you combine head-to-head history and bookmaker sentiment.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — Back Turkey to win (Away) at 2.24. This pick is supported by Turkey’s superior recent win rate across their last ten games, their convincing head-to-head victory in 2024, and the bookmaker probability that prices them as favorites while still offering value.