Prediction Greece vs Belarus 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 05/09/2025

Match overview and setting the scene

Greece returns to Piraeus on 5 September with clear momentum and the weight of expectation pinned to Stadio Georgios Karaiskáki. The home side have been in sparkling form across their recent outings, racking up emphatic results that include a 4-0 demolition of Bulgaria and a 4-1 victory over Slovakia in the summer friendlies. Those scorelines tell a story of a team that can find the net with regularity and dominate matches when everything clicks. With capacity for over 33,000 fans, the atmosphere in Piraeus should lift the hosts and amplify the gulf bookmakers currently see between these two nations.

Belarus arrive with mixed recent results. Their summer results include a heavy 1-4 reverse against Russia but also convincing wins such as 4-1 over Kazakhstan and 5-0 away to Tajikistan. The pattern across their last ten shows inconsistency: flashes of offensive potency are tempered by draws and the occasional loss. That unpredictability has left Belarus sitting lower in the group pecking order on paper, but they are not toothless — their previous fixtures show they can score and can be dangerous on the break.

Form, head-to-head and mood

Greece’s recent run reads like a championship stretch: an overall latest report of W-W-W-L-W-L-W-W-W-W with eight wins in ten shows a side that rarely lets form dip for long. The home side’s previous match highlighted Dimitrios Pelkas as a standout performer, earning the best player rating in the 4-0 win over Bulgaria. Belarus’s form presents a contrast: L-W-W-W-D-L-D-D-W-D, a sequence that underlines both their ability to win and a tendency to drop too many points through draws and occasional defensive lapses. Their last outing against Russia ended in defeat, but Vadim Pigas was singled out as their best performer in that match.

Their most recent head-to-head listed in the data dates back to 2016, a friendly in which Belarus edged Greece 1-0. While historical meetings are sparse, the narrative shaping this fixture is very much about current rhythm — and that favours the hosts.

Key context from the odds

Bookmakers have made their call: the match-winner market prices Greece at 1.20, a probability estimate of roughly 83.3%, while a Belarus upset is priced at a long 15.00. The market verdict mirrors the form lines and the home advantage in Piraeus.

Prediction and betting tip

Given Greece’s dominant recent form, the fact they will play at home in a familiar stadium, and the pronounced gap in bookmaker expectations, the clearest, most data-aligned selection is a straight home victory on the 1X2 market. Greece carry momentum, have been prolific in recent friendlies, and boast the kind of confidence that typically translates into results in qualification fixtures.

Betting suggestion: Back Greece to win (1) in the 1X2 market. The odds and recent performances point decisively to a home victory, making this the most sensible single-market pick from the available data.