Prediction Guingamp vs Montpellier 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Ligue 2 on 15/09/2025

Match context and what’s at stake

Guingamp welcome Montpellier to the Stade du Roudourou on 15/09/2025 in Round 5 of the Ligue 2 regular season, with Pierre Gaillouste named as referee. The Breton crowd — in a ground that holds just under 19,000 — can expect an intriguing clash between a home side fighting to climb out of the lower half and an away side that has been frustratingly inconsistent. Guingamp sit 14th with four points from four games while Montpellier are slightly ahead in 12th with five points. On paper the market gives Guingamp the slight edge at 2.45 for the home win, with the draw at 3.30 and Montpellier available at 2.80.

Form and recent trends

Recent results paint contrasting pictures. Guingamp arrive on the back of a morale-boosting 3-1 win away at Bastia and have shown they can both score and concede in equal measure — six goals for and nine against in the league so far. Their attacking output at home has been notable: 23 shots on target out of 46 total shots and a strong corners average of six per game suggests they will press and create chances at Roudourou. Montpellier, meanwhile, have managed only one win in their last ten matches and their form string reads as a sequence heavy in draws and defeats. They are efficient in possession of set-piece territory but have a lower shots-on-target ratio (9 on target from 46 attempts), and they have been wasteful off target more often than not.

Both teams have lacked clean sheets and that fragility at the back points toward open phases where chances will be available. Guingamp’s home defensive record is worrying — seven goals conceded at the Roudourou — but that has coincided with high-scoring encounters: 75% of Guingamp’s matches have gone over 2.5 goals this season. Montpellier has seen fewer high-scoring games (25% over 2.5), but the visitors have still shown the capacity to find the net away from home and defended unevenly, conceding four goals so far.

Tactical outlook and key matchups

Expect Guingamp to leverage their attacking intent, using the wide areas and set-piece presence to create sustained pressure. Their dangerous-attacks average and high shots-inside-box numbers underline a willingness to play through the final third. Montpellier’s best hope will be to sit deeper, absorb that pressure and strike on the counter; their away defensive goals conceded is relatively contained, but recent form suggests they could struggle to turn defence into decisive attacking moments. Individual performances from the last round — Jérémy Hatchi earning praise for Guingamp and Nathanaël Mbuku standing out for Montpellier — hint at players who can influence the outcome, but this fixture will be decided more by team shape and momentum than solitary heroics.

Betting suggestion: On balance, the data favors a home advantage amplified by recent confidence and a more threatening shots-on-target profile. Back Guingamp to win (1X2) at around 2.45.