Preview: a midwinter clash at the HDI Arena
January in the 3. Liga brings a fixture that carries more than just three points on the table. Havelse, nominally the home side for this encounter, will welcome Erzgebirge Aue to the HDI Arena on January 30, 2026, in a match that feels like a six-pointer for survival-minded sides. Havelse arrive sitting 19th with 16 points from 21 games, having shown glimpses of resilience — three wins, seven draws and eleven defeats have produced a mix of gritty draws and occasional strike-outs. Aue, positioned slightly higher in 17th with 22 points, have a sturdier defensive profile on paper and will fancy their chances to press an advantage against a side that has conceded 44 goals this season.
Both teams have endured rocky spells recently. Havelse’s results sequence has seen alternating flashes of hope and setbacks; their recent 4-1 loss to Rot-Weiss Essen was a harsh reminder of defensive frailties. Erzgebirge Aue, meanwhile, suffered a heavy 0-3 reverse to Ulm in their last outing, but their overall season statistics show more clean sheets (six) and fewer goals conceded (33) compared to Havelse. Those figures suggest Aue are better equipped to grind out results on the road, especially when the stakes are high and mistakes are punished.
Tactical backdrop and statistical edge
Havelse rely on a moderate attacking output — 30 goals in 21 matches — but defensive lapses have undermined their progress. Aue’s attack tally is leaner, yet their capacity to keep opponents at bay and manage games cannot be overlooked. The h2h adds a layer to the narrative: the teams met earlier in the season with Erzgebirge Aue prevailing 2-1, a result that will bolster their belief heading into this rematch.
From a betting perspective, markets are finely balanced. Bookmakers have priced Aue as the marginally more likely winner, with odds that reflect a tight contest rather than a runaway. For readers refining their approach to markets, pairing a match preview with broader strategy is wise — check out Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets for ideas on where value may lie. If emotions threaten to push your stake decisions, remember the advice on How to have emotional control when placing bets? to keep discipline sharp.
Betting suggestion
After weighing form, defensive records and the recent head-to-head, the cleanest value sits with the 1X2 market: back Erzgebirge Aue to win (Away) at the available price (around 2.45). Aue’s relative defensive stability, their marginally superior points tally and that prior 2-1 success against Havelse combine to make an away win the most logical single-market play for this fixture.
