Prediction Homburg vs Holstein Kiel 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the DFB Pokal on 17/08/2025

Small stadium, big intentions: a classic cup mismatch

The DFB Pokal always produces mismatches that can surprise, but on paper this first-round clash feels straightforward. Homburg welcome Holstein Kiel to the intimate confines of Waldstadion in Alfter on 17 August 2025, a venue with a capacity of just 1,500 that will throng with local hope and cup-day noise. Homburg arrive carrying the kind of form that suggests resilience mixed with defensive fragility; recent results show a team that can both score and concede in bulk — most notably a 5-3 reverse at Freiburg II last weekend. Holstein Kiel, a side operating at a higher level and priced as clear favourites by the bookmakers, come in under pressure after a 0-2 home defeat to DSC Arminia Bielefeld in the 2. Bundesliga, but still retain the weight of expectation.

Form and context: what the recent results tell us

Homburg’s run of results reads like a team that plays open and entertains: draws and narrow defeats pepper their recent slate, and the 5-3 scoreline from Freiburg II is a glaring example of how games involving Homburg tend to swing back and forth. That kind of match temperament can be dangerous for a visiting side if complacency creeps in. Holstein Kiel’s sequence is patchier on the surface; multiple defeats across league matches underline inconsistencies, yet they have greater squad depth and a higher-class match rhythm coming from regular 2. Bundesliga action. The last Holstein Kiel match listed names David Zec as the best-performing figure in a losing effort — a small reminder that individual performances still shine even when results do not.

Referee Assad Nouhoum will take charge, and his presence adds a neutral element to proceedings. In a one-off cup tie at a compact stadium, the atmosphere and officiating can influence tight decisions. Homburg’s supporters will try to make the ground a cauldron; still, the statistical weight of the tie — reflected in the market — leans toward the visitors.

Betting suggestion

Given the odds and the respective competitive levels, the market favours a Holstein Kiel victory. The bookmakers offer Holstein Kiel at 1.53 (approximately 65% implied probability), while Homburg are a long shot at 5.00. Backing the away win (Holstein Kiel to win) is the most sensible single-market play here, combining bookmaking value with the underlying gap in quality and league standing.