Prediction Iceland vs Ukraine 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 10/10/2025

Match overview

Iceland welcome Ukraine to Laugardalsvöllur on 10 October in what promises to be an intense Group Stage encounter of the 2026 WC Qualification Europe. The Reykjavík stadium may hold just over 15,000 fans, but the stakes are large: Iceland sit second in the group with three points from two matches thanks to an eye-catching 5-0 success over Azerbaijan, while Ukraine are third with a single point after a 1-1 draw in Baku. The market is nudging the visitors as favourites — Ukraine are trading around 2.35 for the win — but this is far from a straightforward away job.

Form and recent meetings

Both sides bring mixed recent form into this clash. Iceland’s results read like a rollercoaster: an emphatic win against Azerbaijan and a narrow 2-1 defeat to France underline their capability to score, yet their longer-term run shows inconsistency with more losses than wins across the latest sample. Elías Ólafsson emerged as Iceland’s best performer in the France game, and the hosts’ group statistics show five goals scored at home and none conceded, a tidy home profile.

Ukraine arrive having edged Azerbaijan 1-1 in their most recent outing and having split results across earlier fixtures — including a 3-0 reverse to Belgium and a 3-1 victory over the same opponent earlier in the window. Oleksandr Zubkov stood out in Baku with a solid performance and the visitors bring a higher average of corners and heavy shot volume into the match. Their head-to-head history is significant too: Ukraine beat Iceland 2-1 in the decisive Euro Qualification play-off final in 2024, a reminder that this pairing has produced close, decisive matches before.

Key statistics that matter

Shot and attacking metrics are neck-and-neck: Iceland average strong attacking numbers at home with good shots-on-target figures, while Ukraine create plenty of corners and take more total shots overall. Iceland have seen over-2.5 goals in their home matches so far, whereas Ukraine’s broader sample shows a more conservative goals profile in the campaign so far. Defensive records tell a similar story of balance — Iceland have been resolute at Laugardalsvöllur, while Ukraine have conceded in away group fixtures and must tighten up to silence the home crowd.

Prediction

Expect a competitive, high-energy tie. Iceland will press forward with confidence after that 5-0 display and desire to defend their home turf, but Ukraine’s recent head-to-head victory and a market that backs them as favourites suggests the visitors will be far from passive. This is likely to be a close contest with chances at both ends, set-piece threats from Ukraine and moments of attacking flair from Iceland.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — Back Ukraine to win (Away) at 2.35. The price reflects Ukraine’s edge in recent head-to-heads, bookmaker confidence, and their ability to grind out results on the road; it’s the most value-driven single selection from the available markets.