Prediction Imbabura vs Cumbaya 2025 – Betting Tips for the Liga Pro Serie B on 11/09/2025

Match outlook: home grit vs away fragility in Ibarra

Imbabura return to Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra with a chance to steady the ship in the Relegation Round. The hosts have shown flashes of attacking intent across the campaign — 360 total shots, an average of 15 per match and a healthy dangerous-attacks metric — and at home they have found the net more often (14 goals at home). Those underlying numbers paint a picture of a side that can create chances and press forward when the crowd is behind them. Even with an inconsistent run of results recently, Imbabura’s home figures give them the edge in this fixture.

Cumbaya, travelling to Ibarra, arrive wounded. The recent scorelines have been unforgiving — a 4-1 defeat to Chacaritas fresh in their memory and a string of losses punctuating their form. Their overall shot volume and attacking numbers lag behind the hosts (241 total shots, about 10 per match), and they have been porous away from home, conceding 20 goals on the road. While Cumbaya do possess a respectable tally of clean sheets across the season, their recent defensive frailties and lack of cutting edge away from home suggest they will struggle to impose themselves in this stadium.

Recent form, head-to-head and momentum

Formally, Imbabura sit above Cumbaya in the Relegation Round standings — fourth versus sixth — with Imbabura collecting three points from two matches compared to Cumbaya’s solitary point. The last meeting between these sides in June ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Cumbaya, a reminder that the visitors can be competitive, but context matters: Imbabura have been far punchier at home this season, generating more shots, more dangerous attacks and converting chances that have kept them in games. Their last outing saw Danny Burbano singled out as best on the night despite a 0-3 reverse, showing individuals can still shine even when results swing the wrong way.

Cumbaya’s recent matches show defensive lapses and a struggle to control possession high enough up the pitch to create regular chances. They will hope Aderlyn Johao Delgado de Jesús’s performance in the Chacaritas game doesn’t mask broader problems, but the trendlines suggest a side under pressure.

Prediction and betting tip

Given the contrast in attacking volume, home advantage at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra and the visitors’ recent heavy defeats away from home, the logical call is to back the home win in the 1X2 market. Imbabura look likeliest to grind out the result in front of their supporters and should carry enough momentum and opportunity creation to edge Cumbaya on 11/09/2025.

Betting suggestion: 1 (Imbabura to win).