Match preview: Inter’s fortress faces a fearless Bodø / Glimt
The return leg at Stadio Giuseppe Meazza on 24 February promises to be a high-voltage affair. Inter arrive buoyed by domestic form — a 2-0 win at Lecce in their most recent outing and a strong run that reads W-L-W-W-W-W-W-W-L-W over the last ten. The home stats underline their attacking thrust: 150 total shots, 47 on target, and an average of 16.67 shots per match. Their ground will be packed to its 75,817 capacity and the bookmakers make the hosts overwhelming favorites (1.23), assigning Inter roughly an 81.3% chance on the 1X2 market.
But this is not a straightforward narrative. Bodø / Glimt have shown they are more than just brave tourists: they stunned Inter 3-1 in the quick-turnaround meeting on 18 February, with Kasper Høgh earning top billing after that clash. The Norwegian side’s form over their last ten matches is remarkable — eight wins, a draw and just one defeat — and their attacking numbers are eye-catching. Bodø average 12.09 shots per match with 58 on target overall and an Over 2.5 rate of 90.91% across their recent fixtures, signaling a team that produces goals consistently, even away from home.
Statistical tensions and what they point to
Two data themes jump out. First, both teams are attack-oriented: Inter’s dangerous attacks average sits at 52.56 and Bodø’s at 48.55, which, combined with high shots-on-target figures for both, suggests goalmouth action. Second, the previous head-to-head ended 3-1 in Bodø’s favor, so Inter’s home advantage will be tested by a visitor already proven capable of scoring at San Siro. Clean sheets are not plentiful for either side — Inter have four, Bodø just one — and both have high over-2.5 percentages; Inter’s matches go over 2.5 nearly two-thirds of the time, while Bodø’s eclipses 90%.
For readers thinking in market terms, remember the importance of timing and context when stepping into goal markets; understanding when to place those bets can make a difference in value. For a deeper read on timing in goal markets, check this piece on the right time to place bets on goal markets. If you want to brush up on how the heavy favoritism in the lines translates into implied probabilities and value, see this explainer on how the betting odds work in sports betting.
Betting outlook and final suggestion
Bookmakers have priced Inter as heavy favorites to turn around the tie at home, and on pure probability the 1X2 pick would be a confident home selection. Yet, the clash of Inter’s home firepower and Bodø’s ruthless, high-scoring road form sets the stage for goals. Given the recent 3-1 meeting and both teams’ attacking indicators — high shots on target, frequent Over 2.5 outcomes and a shortage of clean sheets — the most compelling single-market play here is on goals rather than on a low-return straight win.
Betting suggestion: Back Over 2.5 goals.
