Prediction Iraq vs Indonesia 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Asia on 11/10/2025

Match context and form

A pivotal Group stage clash in the 2026 World Cup Qualification Asia looms on 11/10/2025 as Iraq take on Indonesia at the Alinma Stadium in Jeddah. Iraq arrive with momentum from a string of recent wins across different competitions: victories over Thailand, Hong Kong and Jordan pepper their latest results, and their most recent outing saw a 1-0 success in the King’s Cup final where Jalal Hassan earned plaudits with an 8.18 rating. That uptick in confidence has translated into a robust defensive record in the broader sample: home-team statistics show ten clean sheets and just six goals conceded at home, underlining how hard it has been to breach them on home soil.

Indonesia, meanwhile, have been a mixed bag. They suffered a narrow 2-3 defeat to Saudi Arabia in their latest group match but have also produced eye-catching attacking displays — notably a 6-0 win over Chinese Taipei. Their away form in broader competition suggests volatility: while capable of big scores away from home, their away defensive ledger shows 22 goals conceded, a worrying figure that hints at susceptibility when pushed. The head-to-head memory tilts towards Iraq too; the last competitive meeting in this qualification pathway ended 2-0 in Iraq’s favor.

Tactical edges and key numbers

Numbers tell a compelling story. Iraq average a healthy volume of attacks and dangerous situations per match, and their shot counts — 71 total with 25 on target in the sample — reflect a side comfortable controlling phases. Indonesia’s totals are slightly higher in raw shots (81) and shots on target (35), yet their defensive fragility away from home stands out: conceding 22 away goals in the dataset highlights gaps that Iraq can exploit, especially given their capacity to grind out results and keep clean sheets.

Both sides feature recent goal-heavy results in places, and Indonesia’s away games often see both teams scoring. However, Iraq’s recent string of clean sheets and winning mentality — bolstered by Cup success and sound home statistics — give them the edge in a match where control and defensive discipline could define the outcome.

Prediction: Iraq to win. Based on the balance of form, defensive record at home, recent head-to-head and bookmaker pricing that favors the hosts, Iraq are the sensible selection.

Betting suggestion

Betting suggestion (1X2): Back Iraq to win at odds around 1.95.