Preview: a clash at AFAS Trainingscomplex with contrasting momentum
Two sides heading into Monday night at the AFAS Trainingscomplex present a classic Eerste Divisie contrast: Jong AZ, anchored in 18th place and scraping for consistency, welcome a vibrant Almere City side sitting fifth and riding a rich vein of form. The fixture on 26/01/2026 (kick-off 19:00) brings together a home team that has struggled to find footing — just three wins in their last ten — against an away outfit that has won eight of its last ten matches. Referee Thomas Hardeman will oversee the contest at a compact venue in Wijdewormer that holds 3,000 spectators, a setting that could magnify the pressure on the young AZ side.
Form and recent meetings set the tone
Jong AZ’s recent results tell a mixture of flashes and frailty: a morale-boosting 3-1 win at VVV-Venlo on 16 January is sandwiched between a string of defeats, including losses to Jong Ajax and FC Eindhoven. Almere City, meanwhile, arrive off a confident 2-0 victory over De Graafschap, a result that underscored their capacity to control matches and close them out — Junior Kadile earning plaudits as the side’s man of the match. While the only recent head-to-head listed saw Jong AZ triumph 3-1 at Almere last October, form since then swings heavily in favor of the visitors.
Tactical cues emerge from the numbers: Almere have been markedly more prolific in overall chance creation and shooting volume — 384 total shots to Jong AZ’s 297, and a superior shots-on-target figure — which correlates with their league position and suggests they will pose the greater attacking threat. Jong AZ have struggled to translate home outings into goals, with only 13 tallies at their own ground this season, and their defensive ledger of 22 goals conceded at home raises questions about containing Almere’s forward motion.
What the market is saying
Bookmakers give Almere City the clear advantage: away win odds sit at 2.10 (about a 47.6% implied probability), with the home win priced at 3.10 and the draw 3.80. Those prices mirror the narrative on the pitch — an away side in rhythm and a home side that remains patchy. The competition’s general trend toward matches with goals (both teams’ over-2.5 percentages are high) also hints at a lively encounter where chances will be created at both ends, though Jong AZ’s lower home scoring rate could limit a high-scoring upset.
For bettors looking to deepen their methodology around selecting markets, consider brushing up on broader approaches in advance — a useful primer can be found in this piece on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets — and remember that managing emotions when stakes are high matters as much as the statistical edge, a subject covered in What does it mean the handicap market in sports betting?
Betting suggestion Given Almere City’s dominant recent form, superior shot and chance metrics, and the market’s positioning, the most logical play in the 1X2 market is an away win for Almere City. If you prefer goal markets, the season-long tendency toward matches clearing the 2.5 mark makes Over 2.5 goals an attractive alternative — but the primary pick remains Almere City to win (Away) at the quoted prices.
