Prediction Latvia vs Andorra 2026 season – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 11/10/2025

Match context: a must-win atmosphere in Liepāja

Latvia host Andorra at Stadions Daugava in Liepāja on 11 October 2025 with Group Stage points starting to feel heavy for both sides. The home side arrive sitting fourth in the group with four points from five matches, while Andorra remain rooted to the bottom without a single point and no goals scored in the campaign so far. The small stadium — capacity 5,083 — will provide an intimate, combative setting where Latvia will expect to press an opponent who have struggled to find the net.

Latvia’s recent slate of results reads as a mixed bag: a solitary win among a sequence of losses and draws, and a slender goalscoring return across the group. Their group totals — two goals scored and six conceded — tell a story of a team capable of defending in numbers but hard-pressed to turn chances into decisive finishes. Andorra’s numbers are starker: five defeats, zero goals, and ten conceded. The gulf in productivity is reflected in the shots data too: Latvia have produced 35 total shots with 11 on target across the competition, while Andorra musters just 18 shots and only 2 on target. On paper, Latvia are far more likely to create meaningful offensive moments.

Head-to-head and form narrative

The most recent meeting between these teams in March saw Latvia edge Andorra 1-0, a result that underlines the tactical familiarity Latvia have with this opponent. Andorra’s latest match, a 0-0 friendly draw with Estonia, offered a rare clean sheet but did not provide evidence of a newfound attacking threat. Latvia, by contrast, come off narrow defeats and low-scoring affairs against stronger group opponents, suggesting they can control territorial phases and fashion chances even if finishing has been inconsistent.

Both teams bring differing averages to the table: Latvia records higher attacking metrics — a greater dangerous attacks average and more corners — while Andorra’s defensive frailties and lack of returns in the final third stand out. The bookmakers reflect this gap; the match-winner market gives Latvia a clear edge.

Betting markets often boil down to probability and value. The odds here make the narrative blunt: Latvia are overwhelming favorites to take the three points, Andorra are long shots, and a draw sits in between. Given the historical head-to-head, the statistical advantage in shots and dangerous attacks for Latvia, and Andorra’s inability to find the net in the group, the most logical market is the 1X2 market.

Betting suggestion: Back Latvia to win (1X2 — Home) at available odds. The home victory is supported by the recent H2H win, Latvia’s superior attacking output, Andorra’s zero-goal group return, and the bookmakers’ probability which favors the hosts. Keep stakes sensible — the value lies in Latvia’s clear edge rather than an overwhelming expected goal margin.