Prediction Leeds United vs Aston Villa 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Premier League on 23/11/2025

Match context and recent form

Elland Road lights up on 23 November as struggling Leeds United welcome a confident Aston Villa in Round 12 of the 2025/2026 Premier League. Leeds arrive sitting 16th with 11 points from 11 matches, a side that has shown flashes but more often been fragile: just three wins, two draws and six defeats, and a worrying 10 goals scored against 20 conceded. Their away and home splits are telling — only two clean sheets and a mixed set of recent results that includes the 3-1 loss at Nottingham Forest and a narrow 2-1 win over West Ham earlier in October.

Aston Villa, by contrast, are in far better shape. Sixth in the table with 18 points, Villa have collected five wins, three draws and three defeats, and they’ve come off a resounding 4-0 win over Bournemouth. That emphatic result followed a strong run in which Buendía was highlighted as the best performer against Bournemouth with a 7.92 rating — an indicator of the attacking spark Villa can bring. Villa’s defensive ledger is healthier too: 13 goals scored and just 10 conceded overall, with four clean sheets so far.

Tactical outlook and match dynamics

This looks set to be a clash of contrasting trajectories. Leeds’ home numbers show they can be open — their matches have tended to produce goals, with over 2.5 goals in around 63.6% of their fixtures, and a higher-than-expected goals conceded figure that invites pressure from opponents. Villa’s attacking output and ability to control matches are reflected in their higher average of dangerous attacks and a better finishing run recently. On paper the odds mirror that gap: bookmakers place Aston Villa as favourites at roughly 2.38, with Leeds longer at 3.05 and the draw at 3.20.

Referee Robert Jones will oversee the encounter at Elland Road where expectations are that Villa will look to impose themselves early and exploit Leeds’ defensive vulnerabilities. Leeds will hope the home crowd and the familiarity of their surface — a near-capacity 40,242 stadium — can help them spring a surprise, but momentum sits with the visitors.

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Betting suggestion Aston Villa to win (1X2) at the quoted price. Villa’s superior form, cleaner defensive record and recent convincing victories make them the most likely outcome in this fixture.