Match context and immediate form
Anfield will host a classic FA Cup tie on 14/02/2026 as Liverpool welcome Brighton & Hove Albion in Round 4. The Kop knows how to make cup nights feel special and the numbers point to a clear home advantage: Liverpool head into this game with a recent run that includes emphatic results — a 6-0 demolition of Qarabağ and a 4-1 win over Newcastle — alongside a hard-fought 1-0 victory at Sunderland on 11 February. Brighton arrive in less comfortable form, having dropped narrow fixtures to Aston Villa and Crystal Palace and sharing a couple of draws against Everton and Bournemouth. The H2H from December underlines Liverpool’s control recently — a 2-0 win at Anfield in the Premier League — and the expected atmosphere on matchday, with a full-capacity Anfield (61,276), will only sharpen Liverpool’s edge.
Tactical clues from the data
Looking beyond results, the underlying numbers favour the hosts. Liverpool’s recent match stats show a heavy attacking output — an average of 21 shots, 14 inside the box and a strikingly high corners average of 11 — evidence of sustained pressure and territory. Liverpool’s dangerous attacks average sits at a hefty 109, which contrasts with Brighton’s figures: 13 total shots, nine inside the box and a dangerous attacks average of 32. Brighton’s resilience is visible in low-scoring, tight games, but when measured against Liverpool’s firepower on home soil, the visitors are likely to be under sustained siege. The referee named for the tie is Stuart Attwell, a detail that sometimes influences how tight contests are managed; discipline could be a factor given Brighton’s higher fouls average in recent data.
What to expect and where the value lies
This FA Cup clash feels like the kind of tie where the favorite presses hard from the start and Brighton attempt to frustrate and counter. Liverpool’s recent high-scoring wins suggest they can break through, while Brighton’s sequence of slender losses and draws hints at defensive vulnerabilities when faced with consistent pressure. The bookmakers reflect this dynamic: the market has Liverpool as clear favourites at 1.53 (about a 65% implied probability), with the draw and away win trading much longer. While cup football can always spring surprises, the weight of evidence — home momentum, shot and corner dominance, and a recent H2H victory — tilts strongly toward a Liverpool success.
For readers aiming to sharpen their betting approach, it helps to pair match-specific insight with broader strategy; consider reviewing practical guidance like these soccer betting tips and the choice of markets before staking. If you want to explore market concepts that can refine your selections further, learning what the handicap market actually represents could be useful.
Betting suggestion (1X2) Back Liverpool (Home) — 1.53. The combination of home advantage at Anfield, a superior shots and dangerous-attack profile, and recent head-to-head form makes the home win the most logical single-market play. Stake cautiously and consider smaller stakes or a lower unit size given the nature of cup football and the possibility of underdog upset.
