Prediction Liverpool vs Southampton 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Carabao Cup on 23/09/2025

Match context and build-up

Anfield will roar again on 23 September as Liverpool host Southampton in the 3rd Round of the Carabao Cup. This is a fixture that arrives with clear narrative lines: Liverpool arrive in red-hot form, playing at a packed Anfield with a capacity of 61,276, while Southampton head north on the back of a mixed set of results. The tie will be overseen by referee Thomas Bramall, and the short turnaround from recent league action adds an extra edge to team selection and intensity. Liverpool's recent calendar reads like a confidence diary — a string of victories that includes a 2-1 derby success over Everton on 20 September, where Ryan Gravenberch produced the standout performance. Southampton, by contrast, were beaten 3-1 by Hull City in the Championship on the same weekend and have been less consistent in their results.

Form and recent trends

Liverpool's form is emphatic: nine wins and a single loss across their latest ten matches, and their last five results show a side operating with momentum and self-belief. Sequential victories over top-flight and continental opponents have reinforced their attacking threat and overall control in matches. Southampton's record is more volatile — a blend of draws and narrow victories punctuated by recent defeat — leaving questions over their defensive resilience away from home and their ability to withstand high-pressure opposition at Anfield. The head-to-head memory from earlier in the year also favors the hosts, with Liverpool recording a 3-1 victory in a Premier League meeting in March 2025.

Tactical expectations and the key factors

Expect Liverpool to dominate territory and chances; the data and recent results suggest they will carry the momentum and confidence into cup action. Southampton will likely set up with a view to frustrate and look for counter opportunities, but the gulf in recent form and home advantage at Anfield are decisive. The odds on offer reflect that gulf: bookmakers list Liverpool at 1.14, a probability that signals strong favoritism, while the draw and away win sit at much longer prices.

Prediction and betting suggestion

Given the weight of form, recent head-to-head and the psychological lift of playing at Anfield, the most straightforward and justifiable call for this Carabao Cup tie is a Liverpool victory. The bookmakers’ pricing aligns with the on-paper reality — Liverpool are overwhelming favorites and the data supports backing them to progress.

Betting suggestion: 1x2 — Back Liverpool to win (Home).