Match snapshot and mood in Skopje
The First League returns to Stadion Gorce Petrov on 16 February with Makedonija hosting Shkupi in what promises to be a match tilted heavily by form and defensive frailties. Makedonija arrive sitting 10th after 17 rounds with 16 points, a side that has been inconsistent but able to grind out results at times — four wins, four draws and nine defeats so far. Shkupi’s campaign has been a horror show: rock-bottom in 12th with a single point, zero wins, and a brutal goals-against tally. Recent results underline that gulf in momentum and confidence; Makedonija managed a 1-1 away draw last weekend, while Shkupi were hammered 0-6 by Tikves only days ago.
Why goals are the big story here
If there’s one running theme in the numbers it’s goals — more specifically, goals conceded. Shkupi have shipped 54 overall, including 28 away, and have yet to keep a clean sheet this season. Makedonija are not exactly watertight either, allowing 29 goals with a mixed defensive record at home (12 conceded at Stadion Gorce Petrov), but they have found the net more often than Shkupi and have turned head-to-head recent form in their favour — the September meeting ended 2-0 to Makedonija. Home attacking indicators show Makedonija producing a higher volume of shots and dangerous attacks compared to their opponents, while Shkupi’s metrics point to fewer attempts and a porous backline that opponents have exploited repeatedly. Over 2.5 goals is tracking comfortably in this fixture’s surrounding data: Makedonija’s home matches have seen a near-50% rate for over 2.5, while Shkupi’s matches are even more goal-laden at over 70% for over 2.5.
Tactical implication and what to expect
Expect a proactive Makedonija approach seeking to press the advantage of home turf and an exposed away defense. Shkupi may attempt to regroup and defend compactly, but recent form suggests that restoring defensive discipline overnight is unlikely. The match should be open, with Makedonija likely to create a higher number of clear chances and Shkupi vulnerable to transitions and set-piece situations. For bettors weighing markets, the statistical signals point strongly to goals rather than a tight low-scoring affair.
For readers looking to refine market choice and timing, the piece on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets is a useful primer, and if you focus on goals you might also want to consult The right time to place bets on goal markets for strategic timing.
Betting suggestion I recommend the goal market: back Over 2.5 goals. The data — Shkupi’s catastrophic defensive record, Makedonija’s willingness to attack at home, and high over-2.5 percentages for both teams — makes this the most attractive single-market play for this fixture.
