Prediction Mali vs Madagascar 2026 – Betting Tips for the CAF World Cup Qualifiers on 12/10/2025

Match preview: Bamako set for another crunch qualifier

Stade 26 Mars will be buzzing on 12/10/2025 when Mali host Madagascar in a Group Stage showdown that carries weight in the race to Doha. Mali arrive in Bamako sitting third in the group with 15 points from nine games, while Madagascar occupy second with 19 points. On paper it’s a tight affair: Madagascar have been the more consistent point-earners across the campaign, but Mali’s home form and defensive credentials give them a platform to spring a surprise.

Momentum and form lines

Mali’s recent results show a team that can be difficult to break down at home. In their latest outing they beat Chad 2-0, and across the group campaign Mali have conceded only five goals in nine matches. Their last ten-match form reads with a healthy balance — six wins, two draws and two losses — and their attack has produced 13 goals so far. Notably, Mali’s home numbers are strong: eight goals scored at home and four conceded, and five clean sheets on the season, pointing to a side comfortable in its own stadium. Kamory Doumbia’s standout performance in the last victory highlights a squad capable of decisive moments.

Madagascar arrive with attacking intent. They have struck 16 goals in the group and have won six of their nine matches, showing an ability to get results away from home as well. Their recent 2-1 victory over Comoros continued a run of positive displays, and El Hadary Raheriniaina earned a solid rating in that win. Madagascar’s profile suggests a team that will not sit back: they average nearly nine shots per game and have an attacking metric that matches Mali’s intensity.

Tactical expectations and key statistics

Expect a physical, end-to-end contest. Mali average more total shots (94 vs Madagascar’s 80) and enjoy a higher shots-on-target tally, which underscores home attacking intent. Madagascar’s matches have shown a higher frequency of over 2.5 goal games (around 66.7% of their matches), and while Mali’s over-2.5 rate is lower, their home fixtures have seen both teams find the net consistently — the home BTTS percentage for Mali sits at 100 in the sample provided. Head-to-head history includes a 0-0 draw last season, but that blank scoreline feels at odds with the attacking output both sides have displayed this campaign.

Madagascar’s defensive record is looser than Mali’s, having conceded eight overall, but they compensate by scoring more and putting sustained pressure on opponents. Fouls and physicality could play a part; Madagascar average higher fouls per game which can disrupt rhythm but also provide set-piece opportunities.

Final whistle prediction is finely balanced: Mali will be backed by the crowd and a sturdy defensive record, while Madagascar look likelier to force a contest with attacking intent.

Betting suggestion: Both Teams to Score — Yes. Based on Mali’s home BTTS trend and Madagascar’s attacking output, this market offers the most value for a lively, goal-populated encounter.