Prediction Melgar vs Alianza Universidad 2025 – Betting Tips for the Primera Division on 14/10/2025

Match context and recent form

Arequipa will host a clash with clear local narrative: Melgar, sitting seventh in the Clausura table, welcome Alianza Universidad, who find themselves down in 14th. The stadium at the Universidad Nacional San Agustín promises a big crowd for a club that has shown resilience at home this campaign. Melgar arrive with a run of results that reads heavily of drawn affairs but with flashes of attacking potency — a 6-1 demolition and a solid 2-0 win in early October punctuate a sequence that otherwise contains many stalemates. Their overall record across 13 matches shows 18 goals scored and 13 conceded, but when isolated to home fixtures Melgar’s attacking output rises: 27 goals at home, with seven clean sheets recorded, a sign that they have been able to control games at their ground.

Alianza Universidad’s season has been turbulent. The away record paints a bleaker picture: 15 goals scored away but a worrying 34 conceded, underlining vulnerability when they travel. Their recent form is inconsistent, oscillating between encouraging upset results — most recently a 2-1 victory over Alianza Lima — and heavy defeats such as a 5-1 reverse. Across their latest ten matches Alianza Universidad have four wins and five losses, an unstable pattern that suggests they can surprise but are prone to lapses.

Tactical edge and head-to-head

Tactically the numbers tilt towards Melgar. They generate more attacks on average and boast superior shots and shots-on-target figures across home fixtures, while Alianza Universidad’s defensive fragility on the road stands out. The only recent head-to-head meeting ended in a 1-1 draw earlier in the year, showing that these sides can cancel each other out, but the context now is different: Melgar are steadier at home and Alianza Universidade’s away concession rate is the loudest statistic in this file.

Betting outlook and prediction

Expect a lively atmosphere and an attacking Melgar side keen to capitalise on home form. Alianza Universidad arrive capable of moments of menace, but their travel woes and tendency to concede heavily away from home make them the underdogs here. Given Melgar’s home goal numbers, their superior defensive record at the venue, and Alianza Universidad’s leaky away defense, the clearest market to target is the match winner market.

Betting suggestion: Back Melgar to win (1X2). This selection leans on Melgar’s strong home scoring (27 goals at home), seven clean sheets, and Alianza Universidad’s poor goals conceded away (34), making a home victory the most likely outcome according to the available data.