Prediction Mexico vs Paraguay 2025 – Betting Tips for the Friendly International on 19/11/2025

Expect a cagey friendly but Mexico carries the edge

Mexico and Paraguay meet in a neutral-looking friendly at the Alamodome in San Antonio on November 19, and the picture that emerges from the numbers is one of a Mexican side that should be marginal favorites but still vulnerable to an organised Paraguayan fight. Mexico arrive with a run of low-scoring, tight results in recent weeks: a string of draws against Uruguay, Ecuador, Korea Republic and Japan, and a heavy 0-4 reverse to Colombia that left a mark. Their recent form summary shows many draws but also a respectable collection of wins, and the attacking metrics tilt in Mexico’s favour – substantially more total shots and attempts, with Mexico registering 74 total shots to Paraguay’s 25 across the sample available. That activity suggests Mexico will look to control the ball and probe, force Paraguay into more defensive moments and try to convert pressure into the kind of breakthrough they’ve lacked.

Paraguay’s blunt instrument: resilience with moments of threat

Paraguay have shown they can grind out results and can hit on transition, but their recent pattern is inconsistent. A 2-1 defeat to the United States in their last friendly underlined issues in defence at times, while draws against Japan and Ecuador and a win in Peru hint at a side capable of moments of quality. Their away attacking numbers show they have found the net in away fixtures, and that tendency to nick goals on the counter or from set-piece situations keeps them dangerous in a one-off match. Defensively they’re not watertight — zero clean sheets in the provided sample — meaning Mexico’s volume approach should create chances.

The head-to-head history is limited but instructive: a 2022 friendly went Paraguay’s way 1-0, so history alone offers no comfort for Mexico. In match-by-match context, Mexico’s last outing saw Johan Vásquez earn best-player billing in a 0-0 draw with Uruguay, while Paraguay’s last match featured a standout Blas Miguel Riveros Galeano in a 2-1 loss to the U.S. Those individual highlights underline both teams’ defensive and transitional strengths.

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Betting suggestion Based on the form, shot-volume dominance and the bookmakers’ market, Mexico to win (1X2 market) represents the best single selection. The home label in the odds (2.30) prices Mexico as the clear favorite but still offers decent value given their ability to generate chances and Paraguay’s defensive inconsistencies. Back Mexico to win while respecting the friendly’s volatility and considering smaller stake sizing than you would in a competitive fixture.