Peñarol the clear favourites as Miramar try to steady the ship
The Parque Luis Méndez Piana will host a classic gulf-in-form clash on 11/10/2025 when Miramar Misiones welcome table-topping Peñarol in Clausura round 11. The mood around Miramar is mixed at best: they sit 11th with 11 points from ten matches, a record that reads three wins, two draws and five defeats. Recent results underline inconsistency — a 3-0 reverse at Montevideo City Torque came on the back of a goalless draw with Defensor Sporting and a narrow 1-0 loss at Cerro. Miramar have shown they can deliver surprise moments, not least a 3-0 win over Wanderers, but their defensive record at the club level is a worry; they have conceded 14 in the competition while managing 13 goals themselves.
Peñarol’s momentum and efficiency make them dangerous
Peñarol arrive in a dominant mood: top of the table with 25 points from ten matches, eight wins, one draw and one loss. Their formline is imposing — wins over Danubio, Cerro Largo and Juventud recently, and a run that includes seven wins, one draw and two defeats in the last ten. They have been productive in front of goal with 21 scored and a sturdy defense that has conceded just seven. The underlying numbers support their superiority: a much higher shot volume (484 to Miramar’s 309), more shots on target (183 vs 108) and superior averages for attacks and dangerous attacks. Recent head-to-head history also favours Peñarol; earlier this season they beat Miramar 4-2 in April, a result that will linger in Miramar’s mind.
Venue and tactical considerations will matter. Miramar’s Parque Luis Méndez Piana holds 6,500 and can be a raucous stage for an upset, but home advantage only partly masks their fragility. Peñarol’s defensive solidity and clinical finishing have delivered 13 clean sheets in the broader stats package and an efficient conversion of chances that edges them ahead here. Betting markets reflect this reality: bookmakers peg Peñarol as heavy favourites with a best available match-winner price of 1.40 and an implied probability north of 70 percent. Draw and home prices sit far higher, reflecting both Peñarol’s consistency and Miramar’s scattergun form.
Final thought: Miramar will fight hard on home turf and has the capacity to nick moments, but the data and recent form point decisively to an away victory.
Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back Away (Peñarol) at 1.40. Reasoning: Peñarol’s superior form, goalscoring and defensive numbers combined with strong recent results and favorable head-to-head make them the most convincing outcome; stake moderately given the short price.