Prediction Mirassol vs Cruzeiro 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 18/08/2025

Match context and recent form

Mirassol welcome Cruzeiro to Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia in what promises to be a tense Serie A encounter on 18/08/2025. Mirassol sit sixth with 28 points from 17 games and arrive in confident mood after a string of positive results at home — five wins in recent outings including a 3-0 dismantling of Santos and a 2-0 victory at Ceará. Their latest league outing ended in a narrow 2-1 defeat to Flamengo, where Walter earned the best-player rating for Mirassol despite the loss. The home side boast an attacking output of 28 goals and a healthy shots volume (218 total), with eight of their matches finishing over 2.5 goals. They are compact at José Maria de Campos Maia, having conceded just eight times at home so far.

Cruzeiro, perched second in the table with 37 points from 19 games, arrive with clear title ambitions and a record that mixes defensive solidity and clinical finishing. Their season numbers underline discipline: 31 goals scored and only 13 conceded across all games, and an impressive ten clean sheets to their name. Recent form shows resilience — three wins in the latest sequence despite a 2-1 reverse at Santos last time out where Fabrício Bruno was the standout performer. Cruzeiro’s shot totals (271) and shots-on-target (91) underline their attacking threat, yet their away numbers suggest a more measured approach: fewer away BTTS occurrences and a stingy goals-conceded tally on the road.

Tactical outlook and key trends

This clash carries classic contrasts. Mirassol play with fluid attacking intent at home — an average of 12.8 shots per match and a propensity for dangerous sequences — while Cruzeiro combine surgical use of possession and a defense that has produced many shutouts. Head-to-head this season saw Cruzeiro edge Mirassol 2-1 back in March, a reminder that matches between these teams can be tight but decided by fine margins. Bookmakers are pricing Cruzeiro as favorites (away win 2.40) though the draw market is close and Mirassol’s home form means the hosts cannot be written off.

Prediction and reasoning

Expect a competitive, nervy affair with Cruzeiro’s defensive discipline and ability to convert chances the decisive factors. Mirassol will pressure and create chances at home, but Cruzeiro’s consistency and superior table position make them the more likely winners. The recent 2-1 H2H scoreline and Cruzeiro’s higher number of clean sheets suggest a tight victory rather than a rout.

Betting suggestion

1X2: Away win — Cruzeiro (odds 2.40). Back Cruzeiro to claim a narrow victory given their defensive record, superior points tally, and recent resilience on the road.