Prediction Mirassol vs Fluminense 2025 – Betting Tips for the Serie A on 09/10/2025

Match outlook and context

The mid-October fixture at Estádio José Maria de Campos Maia promises an intriguing clash as Mirassol host Fluminense in Round 13 of the 2025 Serie A. Mirassol arrive with the edge in the table — sixth with 43 points from 26 matches — while Fluminense sit just behind in seventh on 38 points from 25 games. The venue in Mirassol, with a 15,000 capacity, sets the scene for a compact, vocal home advantage that could tilt a tight contest in favour of the hosts.

Both sides come into this game with recent results that tell different stories. Mirassol were beaten 3-0 by Corinthians in their latest outing, a heavy reversal after a mixed sequence that includes draws and wins, while Fluminense enjoyed a morale-boosting 3-0 home victory over Atlético Mineiro just days earlier. Those recent scorelines show Fluminense can be devastating on their day, but the deeper season numbers underline Mirassol’s consistency — they have scored 42 and conceded 28 across the campaign compared with Fluminense’s 33 scored and 31 conceded.

Tactical indicators and team form

Looking at the statistical picture, Mirassol have been productive at home, registering 26 goals while conceding only 11 on their turf. That home defensive stability contrasts sharply with Fluminense’s away numbers: 16 goals scored and 21 conceded on the road, suggesting vulnerability when travelling. Mirassol also edge many of the attacking metrics — a higher shots per match average (14.00 versus 12.32) and a slightly lower but solid rate of dangerous attacks, while commanding more corners on average. Fluminense compensate with a marginally higher overall attacks average, but their away defensive leakiness is a clear concern.

Form reads as similarly mixed for both teams when you compress recent results, yet Mirassol’s league position and home goal difference indicate a side that has turned Mirassol into a tough place to visit. Fluminense’s recent 3-0 win shows they are capable of explosive output, but their inconsistency on the road and the comparative defensive numbers give the hosts a real shot at taking three points.

Betting suggestion (1X2)

Based on the balance of form, home advantage and the season statistics, the best single-market play here is a Mirassol win in the 1X2 market. Bookmakers list Mirassol at 2.40 (implied probability ~41.7%), which reflects a realistic value given Mirassol’s superior home scoring record, tighter home defence (11 conceded) and stronger overall points haul. Back Mirassol to win — it’s a confident, data-supported selection for this Serie A clash on 09/10/2025.