Match context and form guide
Modena welcome Empoli to Stadio Alberto Braglia on 24 October in a clash that pits the table-toppers against a mid-table side trying to find consistency. Modena arrive unbeaten in the league so far, perched first with 18 points from eight matches; five wins and three draws underline a side that has turned solidity into results. Their recent run — including a 1-1 draw at Palermo and a string of home goals that have produced eight at the Braglia — points to a team comfortable on its own patch. Empoli, by contrast, sit 13th with ten points from eight fixtures. Their season has been punctuated by draws — four so far — with only two wins and two losses, and a recent 1-1 draw with Venezia continuing an inconsistent vein of form.
Tactical snapshot and statistical clues
The numbers suggest Modena will control the game. They average over 16 shots per match and have generated 38 shots on target across their campaign, while maintaining four clean sheets — a sign of defensive discipline at home where they’ve conceded just twice. Empoli are not toothless, managing 36 shots on target overall, but the side has yet to keep a clean sheet this season and has shipped eight goals away from home. Empoli’s matches have produced more over-2.5 outcomes (62.5% in their recent matches) which hints at their matches being open, yet Modena’s lower over-2.5 percentage and superior defensive returns frame this fixture as one where the hosts can impose structure. Both teams have shared draws recently — Modena drew at Palermo 1-1 where Alessandro Dellavalle stood out, while Empoli’s Rareș Ilie impressed in the 1-1 with Venezia — but parity in individual performances hasn’t translated into consistent points for Empoli.
Momentum, venue and bookmaker lean
Home advantage is tangible: Modena’s Stadio Alberto Braglia capacity and their unbeaten home record this season provide a platform. Bookmakers mirror the on-field reality with the market pricing Modena as favourites at 1.77 (about a 56.5% implied probability), a draw at 3.40 and Empoli a long shot at 4.75. The markets and the data align — Modena are favoured to collect three points, riding a blend of attacking pressure and defensive resilience that Empoli have struggled to match away from home.
Betting suggestion
Based on the available data and market alignment, the clearest value lies in the 1X2 market: back Modena to win. The home side’s unbeaten run, superior shot volume, better defensive record and four clean sheets this season make the 1.77 price a sensible, data-backed selection for this fixture.