Prediction Moldova vs Israel 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 05/09/2025

Context and recent form

Moldova host Israel in what looks set to be a crucial Group Stage meeting in Chișinău, and the numbers paint a clear picture: Moldova arrive rooted to the bottom of the group without a point from three matches, having been outscored 10-2, while Israel sit second with six points and a far healthier attacking return. Moldova’s results have been brutal to watch for home fans — successive heavy defeats including a 0-5 reverse to Norway and a 2-3 loss to Estonia underline defensive frailties that have been exposed repeatedly this campaign. Israel, by contrast, have shown greater consistency in front of goal, notching three in Estonia and taking a narrow friendly win over Slovakia before the international break. Recent H2H history also tilts in Israel’s favour; the recorded meeting in 2021 ended 2-1 to Israel and gives them a psychological edge heading into Friday’s fixture.

Statistical snapshot and match dynamics

Beyond the table, the underlying stats hint at an open affair. Moldova’s defensive record at home is concerning — eight goals conceded at the stadium already this cycle — and they have yet to keep a clean sheet. Their attacking numbers are modest but not non-existent; they have managed two goals in three games, and their matches have often featured multiple strikes. Israel bring a more aggressive profile: higher shot counts, a superior average of attacks and dangerous attacks, and an over-2.5 trend that has surfaced repeatedly in their recent fixtures. Both sides have been involved in meetings with multiple goals, and the data for both teams points toward games where both teams can find the net.

What to expect on matchday

In Chișinău, Israel should come with a clear game plan to press Moldova’s defensive vulnerabilities while keeping the rhythm in midfield that has allowed them to create chances consistently. Moldova will likely seek to regroup and rely on home support and quick transitions, but they must shore up a leaky backline to stand any realistic chance of stopping Israel’s momentum. Given Israel’s superior attacking statistics and Moldova’s porous defence, the match forecast tilts towards an away victory, though the likelihood of goals for both sides remains high — expect an open opening quarter with chances at either end.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 market — Back Israel to win (Away). The bookmakers’ pricing and the underlying trends both support an away victory as the most probable outcome.