Prediction Moldova vs Italy 2026 – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 13/11/2025

Big gulf on paper as Moldova welcome Italy in Chișinău

Moldova’s home turf, Stadionul CPTF in Chişinău, will host what looks set to be a one-sided affair on 13 November. The hosts arrive off a run that reads painfully clear: no wins in the group, a solitary draw and five defeats from six matches, and a goal difference that paints the clearest picture — four scored, 26 conceded. Italy, by contrast, sit second in the group with five wins from six and an aggressive attacking output of 18 goals so far. The June meeting between these two sides already tilted in Italy’s favour (2-0), and recent form suggests little has changed.

Form, stats and what they say about the likely script

Moldova’s defensive frailties have been exposed repeatedly — an 11-1 reverse against Norway and a 4-0 loss to Israel among recent results — and they have yet to keep a clean sheet in qualifiers. Even at home Moldova have conceded 12 and scored only twice, averaging roughly 11.8 shots per match but with little end product. Italy arrive with potency: 131 total shots across their group fixtures, 43 on target and an average of 21.8 shots per game. They have also kept three clean sheets and shown they can both score plentifully and close matches when required; Mateo Retegui’s standout performance in the recent 3-0 win over Israel underlined that attacking edge.

Bookmakers back that assessment decisively — the match winner market gives Italy overwhelming favouritism — but looking beyond the straight result, the statistical profile and recent fixtures point to a high-scoring proposition. Both teams’ competitions have produced a large share of matches clearing the over-2.5 line: Moldova’s fixtures have seen over 2.5 in around two-thirds of games, while Italy’s have done so in over 80% of their outings. Moldova’s porous defence combined with Italy’s firepower creates conditions where multiple goals are a strong possibility.

Match narrative and risk considerations

Expect Italy to dominate possession, press high and create a steady stream of chances; Moldova will look to limit damage but their recent defensive record suggests they will be forced into reactive defending throughout. The atmosphere in Chişinău — a modest 10,400-capacity arena — may lift the hosts briefly, but structurally this tie favours the visitors. Bettors should factor in the heavy market skew towards Italy in the 1X2 market, which offers little value at the quoted price, and consider goal-based options where the statistical story offers more room for return.

Before staking, remember to check strategy and emotional control — resources such as the right time to place bets on goal markets can help refine timing, and maintaining composure is essential (see how to have emotional control when placing bets?).

Betting suggestion: Over 2.5 goals — Moldova’s leaky defence and Italy’s prolific attack make the goal market the best value here.