Preview: Monterrey looks to close the tie at Estadio BBVA Bancomer
Monterrey welcome Xelajú back to Guadalupe on 12/02/2026 in the first round of the CONCACAF Champions Cup, and all signs point to a strong home performance. Monterrey arrive with a mixed but dangerous run of results in recent weeks: after a convincing 5-1 thumping of Mazatlán earlier in January they have alternated draws and wins, and although they suffered a narrow 1-0 loss to América on 08/02/2026, their attacking metrics underline clear superiority. The local side’s average of 17 total shots and 158 attacks per match dwarfs Xelajú’s figures, and a corners average of six to two underlines Monterrey’s territorial control. The first meeting between these teams ended 1-1 on 05/02/2026, meaning Monterrey not only have home advantage but the impetus to assert dominance and settle the tie.
Xelajú arrive compact but outgunned
Xelajú have shown resilience with five wins, two draws and three defeats in their latest sample, but the narrow 1-0 loss to Guastatoya on 08/02/2026 highlighted difficulties in breaking teams down away from home. Their average shot total of six with three on target speaks to a side that can be efficient, yet when matched against Monterrey’s production the gulf in chances created is evident. The previous 1-1 draw demonstrates they can frustrate the hosts, but replicating that at Estadio BBVA — with 22,000 capacity and clear attacking intent from Monterrey — will be a tall order.
Tactical implications and what to expect
Expect Monterrey to dominate possession and territory, aiming to convert pressure into high-quality openings. They create far more dangerous attacks per game than Xelajú, and the shot and corner statistics suggest sustained offensive spells. Xelajú will likely attempt to stay compact, seek transitions and hope for set-piece or counter opportunities; however, that strategy’s success hinges on limiting Monterrey’s high-volume shot game, which has proved difficult in domestic clashes.
Betting suggestion
Given the overwhelming market confidence — Monterrey priced at 1.12 in the 1X2 market with an implied probability near 89% — and the underlying shot and attack superiority shown in the available data, the clearest value here is a straight 1X2 pick: back Monterrey to win. This is a confidence play leaning on home advantage, recent head-to-head parity turned in Monterrey’s favour, and marked attacking metrics. If you prefer a goals angle, consider the match dynamics before staking: heavy Monterrey pressure makes both teams to score plausible but the safer single-market play remains the home win.
For readers looking to refine when to play goal markets, check this guide on the right time to place bets on goal markets. And remember bankroll discipline and mindset matter — learn about emotional control when placing bets before you stake.
