Prediction Moreirense vs Casa Pia 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Liga Portugal on 27/09/2025

Match preview: Moreirense seek consistency at home

Moreirense arrive at Parque Desportivo Comendador Joaquim de Almeida Freitas buoyed by a solid start to the 2025/2026 Liga Portugal campaign. Sitting fifth with 12 points from six matches, the hosts have collected four wins and only two defeats, and their home form has been a foundation — seven goals scored and just two conceded at their compact 2,000-capacity ground. Recent results show a side capable of responding after setbacks: a heavy 3-0 loss to Sporting CP was preceded and followed by convincing wins over Rio Ave and Vitória SC, underlining Moreirense’s ability to dominate in matches where they control the tempo and create the lion’s share of chances. Their attacking numbers underline that intent; 54 total shots with 18 on target across the campaign highlights a team that gets forward and tests goalkeepers.

Casa Pia arrive in search of momentum

Casa Pia come into this fixture in a more precarious spot. Eleventh in the table with seven points from six outings, their record of two wins, one draw and three defeats suggests inconsistency on the road. The visitors have shown they can hit back — wins at Arouca and AVS demonstrate fight — but defensive frailties are evident: nine goals conceded across six matches and a heavier away concession profile (four conceded on the road) make the trip to Moreira de Cónegos a stern test. Their most recent outing, a 1-1 draw with Famalicão, will have offered some confidence, but the broader picture is of a side struggling to string results together often enough.

Tactical edges and history tilt toward Moreirense. The teams met earlier in the year with a closely contested 3-2 result in favor of the hosts, evidence that goals can flow when these sides meet. Statistically, Moreirense have been the more clinical and stable side at home, while Casa Pia’s attacking returns are modest and their defensive record vulnerable. The bookmakers reflect that balance: Moreirense are priced at 2.14, the draw at 3.10 and Casa Pia at 3.60, giving the home side the clearest path to victory in probability terms.

Betting suggestion Based on form, home stability and the market prices, the clearest value is a Moreirense win in the 1X2 market. Back Moreirense to win (Home) at 2.14.