Match context and recent form
A mid-February Premiership fixture at Fir Park sets Motherwell against Aberdeen in Round 27 on 15/02/2026, with David Dickinson named as referee. Motherwell arrive in confident mood at home: fourth in the table with 44 points from 25 matches, a striking defensive record (just 18 goals conceded all season) and 13 clean sheets to their name. Their recent sequence reads as a resilient run — a 1-1 draw with Rangers on 11 February sandwiched between convincing wins over Livingston, Kilmarnock (4-0) and Ross County. That consistency at Fir Park has seen Motherwell score 23 goals at home while surrendering only six, a clear sign they control matches on their turf.
Aberdeen, by contrast, sit down in seventh with 28 points from 24 matches and an uneven run of results. Their latest heavy scalp came in a 6-2 win over Livingston in January, but that high was followed by a damaging 3-0 reverse away to Kilmarnock. Aberdeen’s away numbers are concerning: just seven goals scored on the road and 18 conceded, painting a picture of a side that struggles to impose itself away from home. The head-to-head earlier in the season ended 1-1, so the teams have traded blows before, but current form and home/away splits favour the hosts.
Statistical edge and tactical implications
The underlying numbers favour Motherwell. They are conservative without being sterile — low BTTS rates at Fir Park (36.36%) and a modest share of over 2.5 matches (around 32%) suggest many of their home fixtures are tight, structured affairs where a single goal can be decisive. Aberdeen’s defensive fragility is visible in their overall goals conceded (33), and their away attacking return is thin, making it harder for them to chase games on hostile turf. Bookmakers reflect that reality: the market quotes Motherwell at roughly 1.67 for a home win, with the draw and Aberdeen marked significantly longer.
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Betting suggestion
Based on form, home advantage and defensive indicators, the clearest value lies in the 1X2 market: back Motherwell to win. The bookmakers’ price of about 1.67 reflects the favourite tag but also a realistic probability given Motherwell’s stability at Fir Park and Aberdeen’s away struggles. As a secondary play for those who prefer goals markets, Under 2.5 goals is an attractive alternative given the low BTTS and over-2.5 percentages for both sides; however, the primary recommendation remains a straight home win in the 1X2 market. Bet responsibly and size your stake to reflect both confidence and bankroll management.
