A heavyweight group closer: Stade d'Agadir set for fireworks
The Group Stage finale in Agadir carries real significance as Mozambique and Cameroon meet on December 31, 2025. Mozambique arrive having shown flashes of attacking verve — notably a 3-2 win over Gabon in their last outing — but those thrills have come alongside defensive fragility. Cameroon, by contrast, have been steadier across recent months: an unbeaten group record so far (one win, one draw) and a balanced goals-for and against ledger make them the clear favourites on paper. The Stade d'Agadir will be charged with atmosphere and both teams know what’s at stake with group positions still up for grabs.
Form, recent meetings and match dynamics
Mozambique’s campaign reads like a rollercoaster: three wins, one draw and six losses across their latest string of fixtures, and in the AFCON group they sit third with three points from two matches. Their last victory — a 3-2 win over Gabon — underscored an ability to create chances (home-side totals show nine shots inside the box and seven shots on target across the dataset) but also a vulnerability at the back, conceding three in two group ties.
Cameroon bring more control to the contest. Their latest run shows five wins, three draws and only two defeats across ten fixtures, and in the group they’ve collected four points. Statistically they press harder: more total shots (25 vs 17) and a higher average of dangerous attacks (42.5 vs 28) point to a side comfortable on the front foot. Their most recent 1-1 draw with Côte d’Ivoire demonstrated resilience; Junior Tchamadeu was the pick of that game with a 6.96 rating and the team looked organised enough to frustrate.
Tactical edges lean to the visitors. Cameroon’s numbers indicate superior territorial control and chance volume, while Mozambique rely on quick transitions and moments of individual brilliance — like Ernan Siluane’s man-of-the-match display in the 3-2 win over Gabon.
Betting context and market thinking
For readers who like to deepen their approach to markets, check smart reading on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets — it’s a solid primer for picking where value sits. And because controlling emotions matters when stakes are high, consider the practical perspective in How to have emotional control when placing bets?
Final call — a pragmatic pick for punters: bookmakers have pushed Cameroon as favourites (Away odds 1.69, probability ~59%). Combining form, shot and attack metrics with recent results, the sensible market to back is the 1X2: Cameroon to win. It’s the most value-aligned selection given their superior chance creation, unbeaten group run and the odds offered.
