Prediction Nashville SC vs Philadelphia Union 2025 – Betting Tips for the US Open Cup on 17/09/2025

Match preview: semi-final tension at GEODIS Park

The US Open Cup semi-final at GEODIS Park on September 17 pits Nashville SC against Philadelphia Union in what promises to be a fiery, unpredictable encounter. Nashville arrive on home turf where the bookies give them the edge — odds of 2.30 make them the slight favorites — but form and recent scorelines tell a more nuanced story. Nashville’s recent run reads as a rollercoaster: a hard-fought 5-1 statement win over Orlando flanked by several defeats, including a 2-1 reverse at Cincinnati on September 13. That match saw Sam Surridge emerge as the best-performed player, yet the side’s overall record suggests inconsistency, with just three wins from their last ten and only one clean sheet at home in the sample provided.

Philadelphia Union travel fresh off a catastrophic 7-0 loss to Vancouver on September 14, a result that starkly underlines defensive vulnerability. Yet their underlying attacking numbers have been impressive across the sample: they lead on total and on-target shots (60 and 23 respectively), and their form string shows five wins and three draws in ten matches overall — a contrast to Nashville’s six losses in ten. The Union’s ability to produce high-scoring affairs is reflected in past results (a 4-0 win over Chicago earlier) and in match stats that show solid shot volume and attacking intent.

Key dynamics and what to expect

Home advantage at GEODIS Park will matter. Nashville’s attacking output at home (six goals) combined with Philadelphia’s troubling defensive display in the latest fixture signals an open contest. Both teams show a tendency toward games with goals: over 2.5 goals has occurred frequently in recent fixtures for both sides, and the over 2.5 percentage sits high in the aggregated data. Head-to-head in July this year was a tight 1-0 win to Nashville, but cup football in a semi-final can overturn league form; the pressure often produces frantic, end-to-end action rather than cautious, low-scoring chess matches.

Philadelphia’s attacking metrics — more shots, a higher shots-on-target count and dangerous attack indicators — mean Nashville cannot simply sit back. Conversely, Nashville’s ability to score (a five-goal haul in a recent match) and the Union’s defensive collapse against Vancouver suggest goals could come from both ends or one-sidedly depending on how each coach reacts.

Betting suggestion

Given the volatility in recent scorelines, the attacking statistics favor a goal-laden affair. The best single-market recommendation from the available data is the goals market: back Over 2.5 goals. The combination of Philadelphia’s recent heavy defeats and attacking output, Nashville’s capability to both score and concede, plus high over-2.5 percentages in the sample, all point toward a match where three or more goals is a realistic outcome.