Prediction New England vs Toronto 2025 – Betting Tips for the Major League Soccer on 13/09/2025

Match outlook: New England look to make home advantage count

Saturday night at Gillette Stadium shapes up as a clash between two struggling Eastern Conference sides with New England entering the fixture as the clear market favourite. The hosts sit 11th in the table after 29 games with 31 points, a record of eight wins, seven draws and 14 defeats and a goal tally of 38 scored and 43 conceded. At home New England have shown a mixed profile: 15 goals at Gillette but 22 conceded, nine clean sheets recorded across the season and an attack that averages just over 12 shots per game. Their recent patchy form — two wins, one draw and seven defeats in the last ten — means confidence is fragile, yet they do possess the advantage of beating Toronto on the road earlier in the season and the bookmakers clearly back them, installing them as 1.76 favourites.

Toronto’s resilience and tendency to share points

Toronto arrive in Foxborough 13th in the table with 25 points from 28 matches, a campaign that has produced only five wins but an unusually high number of draws — ten so far. That tendency to grind out stalemates is visible in their last four outings, three of which finished level and two consecutive 1-1 and 0-0 results show a side that is hard to break down but also struggles to convert dominance into victories. Offensively they are among the lowest scorers, just 28 goals overall, while defensively they’ve conceded 35; their away record reflects similar issues with 16 scored and 19 conceded. Jonathan Osorio’s recent form earns mention as Toronto’s best-rated performer in their previous draw, but overall the numbers show a team more inclined towards shared points than high-scoring fireworks.

What the numbers and recent meetings tell us

Head-to-head this season favours New England: they won 2-0 when the teams met in May, and New England’s home profile — combined with Toronto’s draw-heavy run — suggests a result that leans toward the hosts. Goal-wise, New England’s over-2.5 frequency sits slightly above 50% while Toronto have produced far fewer high-scoring affairs; both sides average around 32 dangerous attacks per match but converting those opportunities has been erratic. The market reflects these dynamics: a 56.82% implied probability for a New England win, with the draw and away victory priced considerably longer.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Back New England to win (odds 1.76). The combination of home advantage, the earlier 2-0 success over Toronto this season, and Toronto’s draw-prone form supports a confident lean towards the home victory.