Prediction Newport County vs Exeter City 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the EFL Trophy on 11/11/2025

Match preview: Rodney Parade set for a tight EFL Trophy encounter

Rodney Parade will host an intriguing Southern Group Stage fixture on 11/11/2025 as Newport County take on Exeter City in a game that looks finely balanced on paper. The home side sit third in the group with three points from two matches, having scored twice and conceded twice, while Exeter occupy second with three points but a more aggressive return of four goals scored and four conceded. Newport arrive off the back of a heavy 2-4 home defeat to Walsall on 8 November, a match where Gerard Garner stood out with an eye-catching rating. Exeter, by contrast, drew 1-1 with Wigan on the same weekend; J. Whitworth was singled out as the best performer for the Grecians in that draw.

Tactical nuance will matter here. Newport’s attack has shown flashes — they average 9.5 shots per game with 13 attempts from inside the box across recent meetings — but defensive lapses have cost them, as illustrated by conceding four in their most recent outing. Exeter come with the better attacking metrics in this dataset: 30 total shots with 11 on target and a higher dangerous-attacks average, suggesting they are more inclined to press and create chances. The referee named for the tie is Scott Jackson, and the setting in front of Rodney Parade’s 11,676 capacity could add an edge to a low-margin contest.

Form, trends and what the numbers say

Recent form lines paint Exeter as the steadier outfit. While both teams share one win and one defeat in the current group, Exeter’s underlying shot and chance volumes point to a side more likely to impose itself in the final third. Newport’s home profile shows a side that can create but also leaks chances — their clean sheet count is low and their goals-conceded figures at home hint at vulnerability against a team that prioritizes high-volume attacking play.

From a market perspective the bookies give Exeter the nod at 1.88, with the draw at 3.40 and Newport priced at 3.80. Historically these two have produced a competitive tie, and the head-to-head within the EFL Trophy returned a 2-1 scoreline in Exeter’s favour some seasons back — a reminder that the visitors have had the ascendancy in this competition previously.

Betting advice and final suggestion

For punters weighing options, the most logical single-market play here is on the 1X2: Exeter City to win. The price around 1.88 reflects Exeter’s superior chance production and steadier recent results, and it represents reasonable value given the away side’s tendency to create more shots and more dangerous attacks. If you prefer to study goal markets before staking, consider reading up on broader strategy with Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and timing your move on totals via The right time to place bets on goal markets.

Betting suggestion: Back Exeter City to win (1X2) at ~1.88 — stake cautiously and manage your bankroll.