Prediction Norway vs Israel 2026 season – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification Europe on 11/10/2025

Form guide and context

The stage is set at Ullevaal Stadion in Oslo as Norway, flying at the top of their World Cup qualifying group, host Israel on October 11. Norway arrive unbeaten in the group with five wins from five and an eye-watering 24 goals scored against just three conceded. Their recent results read like a statement of intent — a staggering 11-1 demolition of Moldova and convincing wins over Italy and Finland — and Erling Haaland’s best-player billing in the latest rout underlines the attacking firepower available to the hosts. Israel sit third with nine points from five games; they have shown teeth in attack, not least in a 4-5 thriller with Italy, but their form is patchy and defensive fragility at times has left them exposed.

Norway’s underlying numbers paint the picture of a team that dominates territory and chances: an average of 120.4 attacks per match, 85 shots inside the box and 44 shots on target across their fixtures. At home the hosts have been prolific — 14 goals scored and only 1 conceded — an intimidating mix for any visitor. Israel, meanwhile, are no paper tigers up front; they’ve produced 15 goals in the group and boast an away goal tally of seven, but their overall concession rate of 11 goals highlights the gulf in defensive stability between the sides.

Tactical outlook and head-to-head

The previous meeting in March left no doubt about Norway’s ability to outscore opponents, a 4-2 victory in Israel that showcased their transition speed and clinical finishing. Playing in Oslo will favour Norway’s structured, attack-first approach; the home stats show clean sheets and dominant chance creation. Israel will likely look to strike on the break and exploit set-piece moments — Dor Peretz’s recent strong rating for Israel in the defeat to Italy confirms they possess individual quality capable of causing disruption — but containing Norway’s relentless attack will be the central challenge.

Both teams tend to produce games with goals: Norway’s fixtures have gone over 2.5 goals 80% of the time, and Israel’s matches have breached that same line even more often. Still, Norway’s defensive consistency at Ullevaal (only one home concession in the group) suggests they can control proceedings and convert pressure into decisive scoring phases.

Betting angle and prediction

Bookmakers have installed Norway as overwhelming favorites, with the home win priced around 1.22 and an implied probability near 82%. Given Norway’s dominance in form, chance creation, and the psychological advantage of returning to Ullevaal after a string of heavy victories, the most robust call is to side with the home side to take all three points. While an over 2.5 goals market looks tempting given recent scorelines from both teams, the clearest value and highest-probability outcome from the available markets is a Norway victory.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — Norway to win (Home) at 1.22.