Match overview
This midweek League Two showdown at Meadow Lane pits two promotion-chasing sides separated by a single point. Notts County host Milton Keynes Dons on 9 December 2025 with Aaron Farmer named as referee and a near-20,000 crowd likely to turn up at Meadow Lane. The standings and recent trajectories set the stage for an absorbing contest: Notts sit fourth with 31 points from 18 matches, while MK Dons are third on 32. Both teams arrive in good form, each recording six wins from their last ten results and both boasting five clean sheets so far this campaign.
Tactical clues and form
Notts County have been solid at home, scoring 19 and conceding 10 on their own turf, and they carry momentum from a narrow 1-0 win at Bristol Rovers in late November. Their attack produces an average of just under 91 attacking actions per game and a respectable shots tally, with 78 shots on target this season overall. MK Dons, though, bring the slightly heavier artillery — 202 total shots, more than Notts overall, and a higher attacks average (99.61). Their recent FA Cup win over Oldham Athletic should bolster confidence heading into this fixture.
Direct history adds spice: the sides met earlier in the season at Meadow Lane with Notts producing a 3-0 victory on 2 April 2025, showing they can both control matches and find the net decisively. That result, plus Notts’ home scoring rate, means the Dons will need to be efficient on the counter and clinical when they create chances.
Statistical edge
Numbers point toward an open game. Both teams have an over-2.5 frequency above 60% across their matches (Notts 61.11%, MK Dons 66.67%), and MK Dons’ away goals tally stands high with 17 scored on the road this season. BTTS metrics are also telling — roughly half of Notts’ matches see both teams score, while MK Dons have been involved in even more away matches where both sides have found the net. Shots inside the box favor MK Dons slightly, suggesting they create high-quality opportunities.
If you’re focused on goal markets, it’s worth revisiting guidance on timing and strategy — The right time to place bets on goal markets — and how stake sizing supports long-term results: How to set values for sports betting and how to start creating a bankroll.
Prediction and betting suggestion
Expect an open, competitive encounter with attacking intent from both sides. The underlying data — greater shot volume from MK Dons, healthy home scoring from Notts, and over-2.5 occurrences north of 60% — favors goals rather than a sterile defensive stalemate. Betting suggestion: back Over 2.5 goals. It aligns with recent form, the pair’s attacking output, and historical evidence that this fixture can produce multiple goals. As always, manage your stake relative to your bankroll and consider late team news before placing the wager.