Prediction Olympique Lyonnais vs Basel 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Europa League on 23/10/2025

Match overview

The Europa League returns to Groupama Stadium on 23/10/2025 as Olympique Lyonnais welcome Basel in Round 3 action, and the feel ahead of kickoff is one of confident home expectation. Lyon arrive off a mixed domestic run but with clear European momentum: two wins from two in the group stage and a pair of clean sheets that underline their defensive solidity in continental competition so far. Basel, meanwhile, travel to France with one win and one defeat in the group, buoyed by a confident 3-0 domestic success in their most recent outing. On paper, and in the bookmakers’ view, this is Lyon’s tie to lose.

Team form and key stats

Lyon’s recent sequence reads like a European specialist on familiar ground — despite a setback at Nice on 18 October (3-2), their broader run shows seven wins in their last ten outings and notable victories in both home and away fixtures in European competition. At Groupama Stadium they have manufactured chances — 26 total shots across their European games with ten on target — and crucially have kept two clean sheets in those matches, conceding zero goals in group play. Basel have been potent too, averaging a similar volume of shots and delivering three goals across two group fixtures, but their defensive record away in Europe is less assured, having conceded twice already. Recent domestic form gives Basel confidence: a 3-0 win over Winterthur highlighted their ability to score decisively, and Xherdan Shaqiri’s man-of-the-match display underlines they possess game-changing players who can swing tight matches.

Tactical edges lean toward Lyon sustaining pressure through higher averages in attacks and corners while protecting a European record that shows discipline at the back. Basel’s dangerous attacks average suggests they will not sit back and invite pressure; they will probe and search for transitional openings, making the contest a test of Lyon’s defensive mettle at home.

Betting suggestion

Bookmakers have installed Olympique Lyonnais as clear favourites at 1.57 (63.69% implied probability), and the data supports backing the home win in the 1X2 market. Lyon’s two European clean sheets, superior home defensive numbers in the group and the comfort of playing at Groupama Stadium make them the safer 1X2 play. Recommendation: back Olympique Lyonnais to win (1). Keep stake sensible given cup football’s unpredictability, but the combination of form, home advantage and market pricing makes the home victory the best single-market pick from the available options.