Prediction PAOK vs Rijeka 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the Europa League on 28/08/2025

Match preview

The return leg in Thessaloníki promises high drama as PAOK welcome Rijeka to Stadio Toumbas in a Europa League play-off that still hangs in the balance. The first meeting this month saw Rijeka claim a 1-0 victory on home soil, a slender margin that hands the initiative to the visitors but leaves everything to play for in front of a near 9,500 crowd. José María Sánchez Martínez will take charge of what looks set to be a tense, tactical battle where fine margins will decide who progresses.

Form and recent context

PAOK arrive off the back of a hard-fought 1-0 league win against Larissa on August 24, a result that should give confidence to the home side and their backline. Across the recent sample PAOK’s form shows a mixture of tight contests — plenty of 1-0s and 0-0s — reflecting a team that can grind out results. The club’s underlying numbers show 34 total shots across recent fixtures but only five efforts on target, and two clean sheets recorded; this underlines a mix of offensive intent and clinical inefficiency in front of goal.

Rijeka’s schedule has been busier and more varied in outcome. They edged PAOK 1-0 in the first leg but followed that with a 1-2 defeat to Varaždin on August 24. Rijeka’s attacking metrics paint a picture of a side that creates chances — 45 total shots and 20 on target in the recent sample — and they have shown they can find the net away from home during this short campaign. Their profile suggests a team ready to sit deep at times and strike on the counter, and that first-leg victory proves they are more than comfortable in a cautious, prize-preserving mindset.

Tactical outlook and key factors

Home advantage at Stadio Toumbas matters; PAOK will be expected to press for the required result in front of passionate supporters. The first-leg loss means they must chase the game, but their recent domestic win should have steadied nerves. Rijeka, who have demonstrated an ability to score and take care of a narrow lead, are likely to be compact and disciplined, making space hard to come by. Expect a tense opening with both sides careful not to give away cheap opportunities.

Betting suggestion

Given the combination of home advantage, PAOK’s necessity to overturn a slender deficit, and the market pricing that heavily favors a PAOK victory (1.57, implied probability ~63.7%), the cleanest value recommendation is to back PAOK in the 1X2 market. The home side look equipped to press for goals at Toumbas and the odds reflect their clear status as favorites to take the match and the tie. Bet suggestion: 1X2 — PAOK to win (odds 1.57).