Prediction Perth Glory vs Melbourne Victory 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the A-League Men on 31/10/2025

Match overview: HBF Park hosts a tricky early-season clash

Perth Glory return to HBF Park on 31 October for a Round 3 A-League Men fixture that looks deceptively straightforward on paper. The visitors, Melbourne Victory, arrive off the back of a heavy 5-2 loss to Newcastle Jets but still carry more attacking intent in the underlying numbers. Referee Shaun Evans will take charge as both teams search for early momentum in what has been a rocky start to the 2025/2026 campaign.

Perth sit 12th with one point from two matches after a chastening 4-0 defeat at Melbourne City. Their home data shows a lively attack metric — 81 average attacks, 30.5 dangerous attacks — but those offensive flashes have been undermined by a leaky defence that has conceded six goals in two matches overall. Perth’s recent form string reads L-D-L-W-W-L-W-L-L-L, and their home performances have been inconsistent: two matches at home have yielded two goals but also two conceded. B. O'Neill earned the plaudits in Perth’s recent heavy loss, and the squad will want to regroup quickly in front of 20,500-capacity HBF Park.

Why the numbers tilt towards Victory — and why caution is due

Melbourne Victory, listed as the away side, show stronger attacking pressure in raw stats — 116 average attacks and 51 dangerous attacks — and they top Perth significantly in total shots (27 vs 18) and shots inside the box (18 vs 11). Those figures suggest Victory are more likely to force chances even if their recent results have been brutal; their last two competitive outings ended 0-0 and a 5-2 defeat, reflecting both defensive frailty and the ability to produce goals when going forward. Denis Genreau’s performance for Newcastle (best player with an 8.78 rating in that match) underlines how opposition moments of quality have punished Victory, but the underlying shot profile still argues that Melbourne can create trouble.

Head-to-head history adds weight: the teams last met in February with Melbourne Victory winning 2-0 away. Bookmakers are siding with the visitors too — the away win priced at 1.85 and carrying an implied probability north of 54% — indicating market confidence that Victory’s shot volume and attacking intent will translate into goals despite their defensive worries.

Tactical note and match rhythm

Expect an open game with both sides likely to push forward at stages. Perth’s home averages for corners and shots hint at periods of pressure, while Victory’s superior attack numbers suggest they will probe and create more clear chances. Given how both teams have been involved in high-scoring results recently, the match dynamic could swing quickly once the first goal arrives.

Betting suggestion Based on the comparative attacking metrics, h2h, recent results and current market pricing, the most logical single-market recommendation is to back Melbourne Victory to win (Away) on the 1X2 market at the available 1.85 price. It combines market confidence with Victory’s clear edge in attacks and shots inside the box. Remember to size your stake sensibly and consult broader strategy resources such as Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets and consider hedging approaches outlined in How and when to hedge in sports betting if you’ll be managing live exposure.