Prediction Peru vs Paraguay 2026 season – Betting Tips for the WC Qualification South America on 09/09/2025

Match context and what’s at stake

Peru welcome Paraguay to the Estadio Nacional de Lima on September 9 as both sides hunt points in a congested South American qualifying race. Peru, sitting ninth with just 12 points from 17 matches, arrive on the back of a heavy 3-0 defeat to Uruguay and a generally fragile campaign marked by scoring difficulties and defensive leaks. Paraguay, sixth with 25 points, look steadier: more wins, far more clean sheets and a recent run peppered with draws and a single loss in the last ten fixtures. The home crowd will expect fight and energy from Peru, but the form lines and underlying numbers suggest a match that could be cagey rather than a wide-open goal-fest.

Form, numbers and how they influence the game

Peru’s qualifying record reads poorly in the attacking department — only six goals in 17 games — while conceding 20. Their shot volume is modest and their shot-on-target ratio sits at around 18.6%, a sign of blunt finishing. Recent results show a team that can grind out draws but struggles to convert chances into goals consistently. Paraguay’s ledger is healthier: 13 goals scored and 10 conceded, a far more compact defensive record and a shot-on-target percentage north of 30%. Notably Paraguay have recorded nine clean sheets in the campaign, underlining a defensive resilience that often stifles opponents late.

The immediate recent meetings add weight to a low-scoring outcome. The most recent competitive encounters and last league rounds delivered goalless or low-scoring affairs: Paraguay’s latest outing ended 0-0 with Ecuador, and the head-to-head friendly recorded a 0-0 stalemate. Both teams’ over/under data tilt to the conservative side — over 2.5 goals sits at a relatively low frequency for both sides — and Paraguay’s capacity to keep clean sheets makes them intrinsically dangerous to tip on the aggressive side of the market.

Tactical implications and match tempo

Expect Peru to push for rhythm early, trying to use home advantage and the crowd, but their inefficiency in the final third means they may create chances without converting them. Paraguay will likely prioritise structure and solidity, looking to frustrate and pick their moments on the counter or from set pieces. With both teams capable of delivering tight, low-key affairs and recent scorelines reinforcing that pattern, the tempo should favor careful, defensive setups rather than open, high-scoring encounters.

Prediction and betting suggestion

All things considered — recent 0-0s, Paraguay’s high number of clean sheets, Peru’s low scoring rate and the low over/under percentages — the most compelling market here is the goals market. Backing Under 2.5 goals captures the balance of defensive solidity and attacking inefficiency on display in the provided data. For bettors seeking a single, data-driven play, Under 2.5 goals is the preferred pick for this fixture.