Prediction Plymouth Argyle vs Cheltenham Town 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for the EFL Trophy on 02/09/2025

A Southern Group opener with plenty to play for at Home Park

The EFL Trophy returns to Home Park on 02/09/2025 as Plymouth Argyle welcome Cheltenham Town for a Southern Group Stage clash that carries early-season weight for both sides. Plymouth arrive with the crowd behind them in a stadium that holds 17,150 and will be keen to set the tone in round one after a mixed run of results. Cheltenham, travelling from League Two, bring a wounded confidence after a string of difficult results and will be searching for a performance that can arrest a concerning slide.

Form and recent meetings paint a clear home advantage

Plymouth’s recent run has produced flashes of resilience and worrying lapses. Their five most recent competitive scores show a 4-0 reverse at Cardiff and a narrow 3-2 defeat at Lincoln City, balanced by a 1-0 victory over Blackpool and a 1-1 draw with Swansea that went to penalties. The club’s latest match report highlighted Bali Mumba as the standout performer in the loss to Cardiff, a reminder that there are individuals capable of influencing games even when results go against the Pilgrims.

Cheltenham’s recent ledger is bleaker. The Robins have struggled to find consistency, registering a 1-1 draw at Salford but suffering heavy losses, including a 5-0 reverse at Milton Keynes Dons and a 3-0 defeat to Cardiff. The best performer in their last outing was J. Day in the draw with Salford, but overall the team’s formline reads as fragile and vulnerable to high-quality opposition.

History offers a nudge to Plymouth: the last competitive meeting in the Carabao Cup ended 3-0 in favour of the hosts, and while cup football can produce surprises, that result underlines the gulf that can exist between these clubs on a given night. With both teams entering the match off inconsistent domestic form, the familiarity of Home Park and recent H2H success give Plymouth a psychological edge.

Prediction and betting angle

Given the balance of form, the venue advantage and the head-to-head edge, the most sensible market to target is the 1X2. Expect Plymouth Argyle to take the initiative and secure a home victory against a Cheltenham side low on momentum. Betting suggestion: back Plymouth Argyle to win (1) — a straight Home win selection reflects the data-led expectation that Plymouth will be the stronger side on the night.