Prediction Qarabağ vs Ferencvárosi 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Champions League on 27/08/2025

Form and recent meetings set the tone in Baku

Qarabağ return to the Tofiq Bəhramov adına Respublika stadionu on 27/08/2025 with momentum and reason for growing confidence. Their recent sequence reads like a strong statement: nine wins in ten in the latest run, a string that includes convincing victories both at home and on the road. The only recent blot came in domestic action when Sumqayıt upset them 1-0 on 22 August, but that solitary loss looks more like a hiccup than a trend. Ferencvárosi arrive with a more mixed ledger. Their latest ten shows six wins, two draws and two losses, with notable results either side of a 1-3 defeat to Qarabağ on 19 August — a game that handed Qarabağ the psychological edge in this rivalry and saw Barnabás Varga emerge as Ferencvárosi’s standout in that clash.

The head-to-head is fresh in memory: Qarabağ claimed a 3-1 victory in Budapest less than ten days before this rematch, and now the Azerbaijani side go back to Baku where their home numbers back up their self-belief. The setting is important — a full stadium capacity of 31,200 and a familiar surface where Qarabağ have been productive.

Tactical edge and underlying numbers

When you dig beneath the headlines, Qarabağ’s statistics underline an attacking side that creates volume and quality chances. Their totals show 72 shots with 31 on target and an average of 110.6 attacks, and they’ve conceded very little at home — only one goal conceded in recorded home metrics and three clean sheets. Ferencvárosi are no pushovers, but their dangerous attacks average (42.2) and lower away goal return (just 2 scored away in the provided sample) suggest they struggle to replicate their best form on the road. Ferencvárosi have been involved in higher-scoring matches overall — an 80% over 2.5 rate in recent fixtures — and Qarabağ also trend toward goals (60% over 2.5), making the prospect of goals realistic. Still, Qarabağ’s superior chance creation and the fact they beat Ferencvárosi away recently tilt the balance.

Prediction and betting tip

On balance, the data points to Qarabağ holding the advantage. Home form, a recent 3-1 win over the same opponent away, a higher volume of attacks and healthier home defensive figures combine into a convincing case that Qarabağ are favorites to take this tie in Baku. The market reflects a modest home edge with odds of 2.35 (implied probability 42.55%), while the draw and away options sit at 3.40 and 3.00 respectively.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 – Qarabağ to win (Odds 2.35).