Prediction Querétaro vs Guadalajara 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Liga MX on 23/10/2025

Match build-up and context

Querétaro welcome Guadalajara to Estadio La Corregidora on 23 October in the 14th round of the Apertura, and it shapes up as a clash between a side fighting for form and a club trying to build momentum. Querétaro sit down in 16th with just 11 points from 13 games and a defense that has shown real vulnerability, shipping 25 goals so far. Their most recent outing was a harsh 4-0 defeat to Toluca, a result that underlined inconsistencies at the back and a home record that has yielded more worry than comfort. Conversely Guadalajara occupy eighth place with 20 points and have been more clinical over their opening fixtures; a 2-0 victory over Mazatlán on 19 October continued a run that, while imperfect, shows a winning rhythm.

Form and statistical edge

Numbers tell a convincing story. Querétaro’s offensive returns are modest — 14 goals across the campaign with only 9 scored at home — and they have managed a single clean sheet at home. Their attacking profile produces fewer shots and fewer clear danger moments: total shots around 99 for the season and an average of 7.6 per game. Guadalajara counter with a much busier attack, nearly doubling those figures in total attempts and averaging 13.5 shots per match; their attacksAverage (88.54) and dangerousAttacksAverage (43.69) are stark indicators of their ability to create consistent pressure. Guadalajara have also been more compact at the back on the road, conceding fewer away goals and posting three clean sheets already this season.

Head-to-head memory from earlier in the year ended 1-1 when these teams met in February, so Querétaro know how to make life uncomfortable. Yet the recent trajectories differ markedly: Querétaro’s form sequence reads as volatile and punctuated by heavy defeats, while Guadalajara arrive off successive positive results and clearly higher attacking output.

Prediction and tactical read

Expect Guadalajara to control long spells by leveraging superior attacking volume and efficiency. Querétaro will aim to frustrate and hit on the counter, but the home side’s defensive fragility and lack of consistent chance creation make them the underdogs. The bookies reflect this balance: Guadalajara are favoured at roughly 1.72, with the draw and home win priced significantly higher.

Betting suggestion

Back Guadalajara to win (Away) in the 1X2 market. The visitors’ superior shot and attack metrics, recent form, and cleaner defensive numbers away from home make the away win the strongest single-market play from the available data.