Prediction Rayo Vallecano vs Deportivo Alavés 2025/2026 – Betting Tips for La Liga on 26/10/2025

Match context and form

Rayo Vallecano return to Estadio de Vallecas on 26 October buoyed by a recent 3-0 victory over Levante, a result that followed a narrow away win at Real Sociedad. That momentum has lifted them to 11 points after nine rounds, but their record at home this season tells a cautionary tale: just two goals scored at Vallecas across home fixtures and only two clean sheets. Deportivo Alavés arrive sitting a place above their hosts with 12 points and a mixed sequence of results that includes a 0-0 draw with Valencia and a 3-1 win over Elche. Both sides have shown moments of solidity, but neither has produced consistently free-flowing attacking displays in La Liga so far.

What the numbers say

The underlying statistics paint a picture of contrasting approaches. Alavés generate more overall attacking volume — averaging 112 attacks per match versus Rayo’s 95 — and they create slightly more dangerous chances, yet their away numbers show restraint: Alavés have netted just two goals on the road this campaign and only one of their away games has featured both teams scoring. Rayo’s season splits are odd; nine goals scored away from home but only two on their own patch suggests they have performed better on the road, yet their overall shot totals and a healthy shots-on-target count show they are not devoid of threat. Both sides have recorded just two clean sheets each, underlining that defensive lapses can and do surface.

Head-to-head history this season favours Rayo, who won 2-0 when the teams met earlier in La Liga. That recent victory away at Mendizorrotza gives Rayo a psychological edge and evidence that they can snatch results even when the scoreboard suggests tight margins.

Prediction and match narrative

This promises to be a compact, tactical contest rather than a goal-fest. Expect Rayo to try and press into Alavés’ half and exploit transition moments, while Alavés will aim to leverage their higher volume of attacks into decisive moments, particularly from set-pieces or sustained spells in the final third. Given Rayo’s recent confidence, Vallecas’ atmosphere and the bookmakers’ lean toward the home side, the balance tips slightly in favour of the hosts.

Betting suggestion: Back Rayo Vallecano to win (1) in the 1X2 market. The home side’s recent away successes and a previous season meeting where Rayo prevailed, combined with Alavés’ modest away goal return, point to a home victory as the most probable outcome. Stake recommendation: moderate — the odds of 2.10 reflect a reasonable return for a side showing edge in recent results and head-to-head form.