Prediction RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV 2025/2026 season – Betting Tips for the Bundesliga on 18/10/2025

Match context and stakes

The Bundesliga returns to the Red Bull Arena on 18 October as RB Leipzig host Hamburger SV in a game that shapes up as a clear-cut home assignment on paper. Leipzig arrive sitting third in the table after six rounds with 13 points, a run that includes four wins, one draw and a single defeat in the league. Hamburg, positioned ninth with eight points, have been more inconsistent but will take confidence from a thumping 4-0 victory over FSV Mainz 05 in their most recent outing. With Tobias Welz named as referee and a near-47,800 capacity at stake in Leipzig, the home crowd will expect their team to press for all three points.

Recent form and previous meetings

Leipzig’s league form reads well: they’ve won three of their last four league fixtures and drawn 1-1 away at Borussia Dortmund as their most recent result, a performance that included a standout rating for David Raum. Their home profile is strong — five goals scored at home and just one conceded — while their season totals sit at eight goals for and eight against. Hamburg’s recent form is patchy, punctuated by that heavy win over Mainz and a 0-0 draw at Union Berlin; Rayan Philippe earned plaudits last time out with an 8.8 rating after leading the attack in the 4-0 victory. The two clubs have a notable recent H2H in the DFB Pokal where Leipzig recorded a 4-0 win, an echo that will live in Leipzig supporters’ minds.

Statistical snapshot and key factors

Statistically, Leipzig dominate possession and attacking metrics — higher shot volumes, more corners and dangerous attacks — with averages reflecting a team that creates the better chances. At home they average nearly seven corners and three clean sheets already this season, while Hamburg’s away record shows a concerning zero away goals scored so far and five conceded on the road. Hamburg do show resilience in spells and can produce results, but their away attacking output is limited by the numbers provided: zero away goals for the season and a lower corners average. Both teams have three clean sheets apiece overall, suggesting either side can keep the opposition quiet on their day, but the venue and recent form tilt the balance.

Prediction

Given the combination of home advantage at the Red Bull Arena, Leipzig’s superior form and attacking metrics, and Hamburg’s continued struggles to find the net away from home, the sensible lean is toward a Leipzig victory. The bookmakers reflect that view emphatically with home odds at 1.40 and an implied probability north of 70%.

Betting suggestion: 1X2 — RB Leipzig to win (Home) at 1.40.