Scene setter: Red Bull Arena readies for a one-sided cup clash
RB Leipzig return to the Red Bull Arena for this DFB Pokal Round of 16 tie on December 2, and everything on paper points to a comfortable home night. Leipzig arrive off the back of a steady run in the Bundesliga — a recent stretch that reads D-W-L-W-W-W-W-D-W-W and shows seven wins from their last ten matches — while Magdeburg arrive from the 2. Bundesliga with a roller-coaster form line of W-L-L-L-W-W-D-L-L-L. The gulf in momentum is obvious: Leipzig’s attack has been productive, and the hosts average higher shot numbers and corners, translating into control in the final third. The fixture will be staged in Leipzig (Am Sportforum 3), where the capacity near 47,800 promises a buoyant backdrop for the favourites.
Form, numbers and a hint of history
Digging into the numbers supplied, Leipzig’s recent Bundesliga stalemate with Borussia Mönchengladbach finished 0-0, but it must be viewed in the context of a side that has repeatedly returned to winning form — wins against Werder Bremen and VfB Stuttgart among recent results. Magdeburg’s most recent result, however, is fresher and encouraging for them: a 3-0 victory over Nürnberg in the 2. Bundesliga, with Alexander Nollenberger earning plaudits for a strong showing. On historical note, the two sides have not met often at this level; their last recorded clash in 2013 finished 4-0 in Leipzig’s favour. That memory will still sit with the home support.
The underlying match stats paint a picture of territorial dominance for the hosts. Leipzig’s total shots sit high, with an average near 23 per game and an attacking output that eclipses Magdeburg’s figures. Corners and dangerous attacks skew towards Leipzig as well, while Magdeburg, although capable of scoring on their day, have struggled for consistency on the road. Both teams have shown matches with over 2.5 goals when they’ve opened up, but Leipzig’s superior balance across attack and defence makes them the safer pick.
Market view and recommendation
Bookmakers have installed RB Leipzig as overwhelming favourites with match odds of 1.26 (a probability cited at roughly 79.37%). The draw and away options are long shots by comparison. Given the form lines, venue advantage and historic edge, the pragmatic and best-value selection is straightforward.
Betting suggestion (1X2): Back Home (RB Leipzig) to win. The short price reflects the clear mismatch, but the probability and data support the pick. If you prefer reading about how to frame such choices in a broader strategy, consider brushing up on Soccer betting tips and the choice of markets, and for managing emotions and stake sizing when backing heavy favourites, see How to have emotional control when placing bets?
Stakes should reflect the short price — a modest portion of your bank is the prudent approach. Expect Leipzig to control the tempo, create chances from their superior shot and corner metrics, and to be favourites to progress into the quarter-finals.